NBA games

IND @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
105–142
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND22233327105
BOS39283639142

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home BOS
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 30 19 4 9
Bennedict Mathurin S 32 18 6 2
Jarace Walker 28 15 0 5
Pascal Siakam S 24 14 9 1
Thomas Bryant 19 12 7 0
Myles Turner S 23 8 5 0
T.J. McConnell 20 8 0 4
James Johnson 6 4 0 0
Quenton Jackson 9 3 0 3
Enrique Freeman 6 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 37 44 5 3
Jayson Tatum S 32 22 13 4
Payton Pritchard 32 18 8 10
Al Horford S 20 13 5 2
Jordan Walsh 21 9 5 2
Derrick White S 30 9 3 6
Neemias Queta 9 6 2 0
Jaden Springer 8 6 1 0
Xavier Tillman 5 5 1 0
Sam Hauser S 20 4 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jayson Tatum · Jumper (2 pts) · 10:45 Q1
"Jayson Tatum makes 5-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
15%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
13%
4 Myles Turner IND
12%
5 Jrue Holiday BOS
11%
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
8 Derrick White BOS
9%
9 Al Horford BOS
7%
10 Payton Pritchard BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
43%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.8 11.0 5.5
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.5 5.8 5.5
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.1 4.2 8.0
4 Pascal Siakam IND 17.5 8.2 2.3
5 Derrick White BOS 16.1 4.9 5.1
6 T.J. McConnell IND 14.2 3.3 4.9
7 Myles Turner IND 14.1 7.0 2.1
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 14.0 4.7 3.7
9 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.0 5.3 2.1
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.3 4.5 3.2
11 Al Horford BOS 8.6 4.9 1.8
12 Sam Hauser BOS 7.1 3.1 1.2
13 Quenton Jackson IND 6.3 1.9 1.6
14 Jarace Walker IND 6.0 3.2 1.3
15 Ben Sheppard IND 5.9 2.5 1.2
16 Luke Kornet BOS 5.9 6.6 1.3
17 Neemias Queta BOS 4.5 4.3 0.9
18 Thomas Bryant IND 3.7 3.1 0.5
19 Drew Peterson BOS 3.5 1.8 0.6
20 Johnny Furphy IND 3.2 1.4 0.4
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.8 1.6 0.5
22 Jaden Springer BOS 1.7 0.8 0.4
23 Enrique Freeman IND 1.6 0.8 0.3
24 James Johnson IND 1.5 0.8 0.4
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.5 1.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.