NBA games

NY @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
108–85
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY26282232108
ORL2925141785

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home ORL
79% 21%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 37 26 3 9
Josh Hart S 38 23 13 1
Mikal Bridges S 44 17 2 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 33 16 8 0
OG Anunoby S 28 8 5 0
Landry Shamet 10 7 1 0
Precious Achiuwa 21 6 6 1
Miles McBride 22 5 5 3
Jericho Sims 1 0 1 0
Cameron Payne 7 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Suggs S 26 27 4 3
Goga Bitadze S 31 14 11 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 31 10 0 3
Anthony Black S 30 9 3 2
Trevelin Queen 26 9 2 3
Jonathan Isaac 17 7 5 1
Cole Anthony 6 5 1 0
Gary Harris 15 2 0 1
Wendell Carter Jr. 17 2 3 1
Tristan da Silva S 28 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Suggs ORL
12%
2 Goga Bitadze ORL
10%
3 OG Anunoby NY
10%
4 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
5 Josh Hart NY
10%
6 Jalen Brunson NY
9%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
8%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
7%
10 Gary Harris ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
35%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 23.6 3.2 6.9
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.6 12.7 4.0
3 Mikal Bridges NY 22.0 2.9 3.7
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 20.3 4.7 4.6
5 OG Anunoby NY 15.6 4.7 2.3
6 Josh Hart NY 14.5 6.9 4.7
7 Goga Bitadze ORL 12.0 10.4 2.3
8 Tristan da Silva ORL 10.9 3.4 1.4
9 Anthony Black ORL 10.1 3.1 2.8
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.8 2.7 2.0
11 Miles McBride NY 9.0 2.6 3.3
12 Cole Anthony ORL 8.9 2.7 3.6
13 Landry Shamet NY 7.3 2.2 1.1
14 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 7.0 6.2 2.0
15 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.9 5.7 1.1
16 Cameron Payne NY 5.7 1.7 1.6
17 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.5 1.6 1.1
18 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.0 3.6 0.7
19 Gary Harris ORL 4.8 1.4 0.8
20 Jett Howard ORL 3.8 1.4 0.7
21 Cory Joseph ORL 2.9 1.3 0.8
22 Tyler Kolek NY 2.4 0.8 0.7
23 Jericho Sims NY 2.0 2.4 0.6
24 Caleb Houstan ORL 1.8 0.5 0.3
25 Jacob Toppin NY 1.6 0.9 0.4
26 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.6 1.2 0.4
27 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.5 0.8 0.3
28 Matt Ryan NY 1.4 0.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.