NBA games

DET @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
114–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET34192437114
SAC37312322113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home SAC
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 33 4 10
Malik Beasley 27 22 2 2
Jaden Ivey S 33 19 6 0
Jalen Duren S 32 13 10 3
Ausar Thompson 18 7 8 0
Paul Reed 13 7 3 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 23 6 4 3
Tobias Harris S 27 4 3 2
Marcus Sasser 8 3 0 1
Ronald Holland II 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 38 26 6 4
Trey Lyles 25 20 8 0
DeMar DeRozan S 36 19 3 4
Malik Monk S 30 15 1 0
Keegan Murray S 37 11 12 2
Kevin Huerter 23 8 5 3
Keon Ellis 14 5 2 1
Alex Len S 23 4 6 4
Isaac Jones 3 3 0 1
Colby Jones 11 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden Ivey · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jaden Ivey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
15%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
15%
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC
15%
4 Jaden Ivey DET
11%
5 Jalen Duren DET
10%
6 Malik Monk SAC
9%
7 Tobias Harris DET
9%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
9%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
10 Paul Reed DET
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
42%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.1 6.2 10.1
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.8 5.0 7.2
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 19.3 4.0 3.8
4 Malik Monk SAC 18.3 4.4 6.5
5 Jaden Ivey DET 17.8 3.7 4.8
6 Malik Beasley DET 15.9 3.7 2.2
7 Tobias Harris DET 12.4 5.0 2.2
8 Keegan Murray SAC 11.0 6.2 1.1
9 Jalen Duren DET 10.3 8.1 1.9
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 10.3 2.7 1.4
11 Kevin Huerter SAC 8.6 3.0 1.7
12 Marcus Sasser DET 7.4 1.3 2.2
13 Trey Lyles SAC 7.4 4.0 1.3
14 Ausar Thompson DET 7.3 3.7 1.8
15 Ronald Holland II DET 6.9 3.3 1.3
16 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.8 2.5 1.3
17 Paul Reed DET 5.4 3.2 1.2
18 Keon Ellis SAC 4.7 2.5 1.0
19 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.2 2.7 0.9
20 Isaac Jones SAC 3.7 2.1 0.4
21 Doug McDermott SAC 3.7 0.8 0.5
22 Jae Crowder SAC 3.3 1.9 0.6
23 Orlando Robinson SAC 2.2 1.2 0.8
24 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 1.9 0.8 0.6
25 Alex Len SAC 1.8 1.5 0.7
26 Colby Jones SAC 1.8 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.