NBA games

UTAH @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
120–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH23313432120
POR23322641122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home POR
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 30 25 6 1
Collin Sexton S 27 19 1 11
Svi Mykhailiuk S 25 18 1 1
Drew Eubanks 18 15 3 0
Johnny Juzang 15 14 5 0
Isaiah Collier S 35 7 8 7
Brice Sensabaugh 17 6 1 2
Kyle Filipowski 18 6 4 2
Walker Kessler S 30 5 16 1
Cody Williams 25 5 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 31 27 5 3
Deni Avdija 31 27 8 6
Deandre Ayton S 34 18 12 2
Scoot Henderson 30 18 0 10
Jerami Grant S 31 14 3 1
Anfernee Simons S 30 8 3 3
Toumani Camara S 32 6 8 0
Donovan Clingan 14 4 4 0
Kris Murray 7 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lauri Markkanen · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Lauri Markkanen makes 29-foot three point shot (Collin Sexton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deandre Ayton POR
14%
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
3 Collin Sexton UTAH
12%
4 Anfernee Simons POR
11%
5 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
10%
6 Walker Kessler UTAH
10%
7 Toumani Camara POR
8%
8 Micah Potter UTAH
7%
9 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
7%
10 Jerami Grant POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
28%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
29%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anfernee Simons POR 20.8 3.3 6.8
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 20.2 3.4 4.5
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.8 4.1 3.5
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 18.4 6.2 2.4
5 Deni Avdija POR 17.1 4.9 3.3
6 Deandre Ayton POR 15.6 9.7 2.2
7 Jerami Grant POR 13.4 3.7 2.9
8 Walker Kessler UTAH 12.7 10.7 1.9
9 Scoot Henderson POR 11.1 3.1 5.3
10 Toumani Camara POR 10.6 5.5 1.8
11 Dalano Banton POR 9.3 2.5 3.1
12 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 8.6 1.9 1.8
13 Donovan Clingan POR 7.6 7.8 1.3
14 Johnny Juzang UTAH 7.5 2.1 1.3
15 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 7.3 4.6 1.9
16 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 7.3 2.6 2.4
17 Robert Williams III POR 6.2 5.3 0.9
18 Micah Potter UTAH 5.4 4.7 1.2
19 Isaiah Collier UTAH 4.8 1.7 3.5
20 Cody Williams UTAH 4.7 2.3 1.3
21 Patty Mills UTAH 4.7 1.5 1.4
22 Jabari Walker POR 4.2 3.0 0.8
23 Kris Murray POR 4.1 1.5 0.9
24 Drew Eubanks UTAH 3.5 3.3 0.8
25 Rayan Rupert POR 3.3 1.3 0.9
26 Duop Reath POR 2.8 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.