NBA games

HOU @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
128–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU39224126128
NO22213137111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home NO
77% 23%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 30 30 2 2
Cam Whitmore 27 27 4 1
Fred VanVleet S 26 25 6 4
Jae'Sean Tate 17 10 2 0
Alperen Sengun S 25 10 13 6
Amen Thompson S 31 9 10 3
Jabari Smith Jr. S 28 6 6 0
Jeff Green 9 6 2 0
Aaron Holiday 9 2 0 1
Steven Adams 11 2 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 30 21 3 2
Brandon Boston 19 17 6 1
Dejounte Murray S 27 17 4 4
CJ McCollum S 27 13 2 3
Javonte Green 19 11 5 0
Herbert Jones S 31 10 6 7
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 13 9 3 2
Jordan Hawkins 18 5 0 1
Antonio Reeves 9 4 1 3
Daniel Theis 19 2 5 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:41 Q1
"Jalen Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
2 CJ McCollum NO
11%
3 Dejounte Murray NO
9%
4 Jalen Green HOU
9%
5 Yves Missi NO
9%
6 Herbert Jones NO
8%
7 Amen Thompson HOU
7%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
33%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 22.5 4.9 3.3
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.0 11.5 6.3
3 CJ McCollum NO 21.2 4.5 4.8
4 Trey Murphy III NO 18.9 4.3 3.2
5 Dejounte Murray NO 18.1 6.9 7.8
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.8 4.7 6.1
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 17.1 4.6 2.7
8 Amen Thompson HOU 15.1 8.1 2.7
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.7 7.0 1.8
10 Herbert Jones NO 13.2 4.2 3.3
11 Yves Missi NO 12.3 10.4 1.1
12 Jose Alvarado NO 12.0 2.7 4.4
13 Jordan Hawkins NO 11.2 3.0 1.5
14 Brandon Boston NO 10.9 2.9 1.5
15 Tari Eason HOU 9.7 6.3 1.3
16 Cam Whitmore HOU 6.4 2.5 0.9
17 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.9 3.6 1.0
18 Javonte Green NO 4.8 3.1 0.8
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.3 1.4 1.0
20 Reed Sheppard HOU 3.7 1.8 0.8
21 Antonio Reeves NO 3.7 1.0 0.5
22 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.5 1.9 0.9
23 Daniel Theis NO 3.4 2.6 0.8
24 Jeff Green HOU 3.3 1.4 0.7
25 Steven Adams HOU 3.2 3.8 1.0
26 Jock Landale HOU 2.9 2.8 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.