NBA games

BKN @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
111–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN27242535111
MIL25342323105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home MIL
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 35 29 5 3
Noah Clowney S 31 20 4 2
Shake Milton 23 20 2 0
Nic Claxton S 31 13 7 3
Keon Johnson S 30 12 4 1
Ben Simmons S 29 8 4 9
Tyrese Martin 17 5 5 2
Jalen Wilson 32 4 4 5
Day'Ron Sharpe 11 0 3 0
Reece Beekman 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Khris Middleton S 26 21 5 5
Brook Lopez S 34 20 7 2
Bobby Portis S 35 18 8 4
Gary Trent Jr. 22 14 3 0
Taurean Prince 23 9 3 0
Andre Jackson Jr. S 23 8 3 2
AJ Green 29 8 6 2
Ryan Rollins S 29 7 4 3
Delon Wright 18 0 0 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Noah Clowney · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Noah Clowney makes 26-foot three point shot (Ben Simmons assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nic Claxton BKN
12%
2 Bobby Portis MIL
11%
3 Ben Simmons BKN
10%
4 Keon Johnson BKN
9%
5 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
7 Khris Middleton MIL
8%
8 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
9 Noah Clowney BKN
8%
10 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
22%
Layup
55%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cameron Johnson BKN 20.9 4.9 3.8
2 Bobby Portis MIL 16.7 8.1 3.6
3 Khris Middleton MIL 12.2 3.7 5.7
4 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 11.2 2.7 1.4
5 Brook Lopez MIL 10.7 4.6 1.2
6 Shake Milton BKN 10.5 3.0 2.2
7 Nic Claxton BKN 10.4 7.2 1.4
8 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 9.6 3.3 1.3
9 Keon Johnson BKN 9.1 3.7 1.7
10 Jalen Wilson BKN 8.7 2.9 1.6
11 Noah Clowney BKN 7.9 3.6 1.1
12 Ben Simmons BKN 7.9 4.9 6.3
13 AJ Green MIL 7.9 2.5 2.2
14 Tyrese Martin BKN 7.4 3.2 1.5
15 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.0 5.1 0.8
16 Taurean Prince MIL 6.0 2.8 1.8
17 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.1 2.0 1.4
18 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.0 2.4 1.6
19 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.6 2.0 1.1
20 Delon Wright MIL 4.0 2.1 1.3
21 Jaylen Martin BKN 3.4 1.3 0.5
22 Dariq Whitehead BKN 3.3 1.2 0.4
23 Liam Robbins MIL 2.7 1.8 0.8
24 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.3 1.1 0.6
25 Stanley Umude MIL 2.2 1.0 0.6
26 Reece Beekman BKN 1.9 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.