NBA games

TOR @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
126–155
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR35353026126
MEM43354334155

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home MEM
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
RJ Barrett S 34 27 9 10
Scottie Barnes S 36 26 6 8
Chris Boucher 21 15 5 0
Kelly Olynyk S 23 14 5 5
Gradey Dick S 25 14 3 3
Ochai Agbaji S 25 10 0 2
A.J. Lawson 5 6 2 0
Jamison Battle 16 6 0 3
Davion Mitchell 27 6 0 5
Jonathan Mogbo 17 2 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 32 21 11 6
Zach Edey S 27 21 16 2
Desmond Bane S 23 19 5 2
Jaylen Wells S 24 17 1 1
Ja Morant S 24 15 2 9
Luke Kennard 25 15 0 8
Scotty Pippen Jr. 21 15 2 3
Brandon Clarke 20 11 9 0
John Konchar 16 9 5 2
Jake LaRavia 21 8 9 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 1-foot two point shot (Jaylen Wells assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett TOR
14%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
4 Ja Morant MEM
10%
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
6 Gradey Dick TOR
9%
7 Bruno Fernando TOR
8%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR
7%
10 Jonathan Mogbo TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
36%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 26.0 7.8 6.4
2 Ja Morant MEM 24.7 4.9 7.1
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.4 8.1 7.5
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.7 6.2 2.5
5 Desmond Bane MEM 17.9 5.0 6.3
6 Gradey Dick TOR 17.4 4.4 2.2
7 Santi Aldama MEM 13.8 6.7 2.7
8 Zach Edey MEM 11.0 8.5 1.6
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR 10.6 3.6 1.4
10 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.2 3.3 1.6
11 Jake LaRavia MEM 9.3 3.8 2.5
12 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 8.9 2.8 4.1
13 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.1 5.9 1.5
14 Chris Boucher TOR 7.4 3.8 1.1
15 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 6.8 5.2 2.2
16 Kelly Olynyk TOR 6.6 4.1 2.3
17 Davion Mitchell TOR 6.3 2.0 3.3
18 Luke Kennard MEM 6.2 2.2 1.5
19 Jamison Battle TOR 5.7 1.8 1.1
20 A.J. Lawson TOR 3.7 1.4 0.7
21 Cam Spencer MEM 3.5 1.3 1.0
22 D.J. Carton TOR 3.4 1.6 1.2
23 Bruno Fernando TOR 2.9 2.4 0.9
24 John Konchar MEM 2.6 2.0 0.9
25 Ulrich Chomche TOR 2.1 1.4 0.7
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.2 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.