NBA games

CHI @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
133–141
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI33314425133
ATL21323850141

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home ATL
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 36 37 5 7
Jevon Carter 36 26 4 5
Coby White S 34 23 3 9
Nikola Vucevic S 36 19 8 3
Patrick Williams S 27 11 3 4
Jalen Smith 12 8 6 0
Torrey Craig 14 7 4 0
Julian Phillips 13 2 3 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 22 0 0 6
Dalen Terry S 9 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Johnson S 39 30 15 4
Trae Young S 39 27 2 13
De'Andre Hunter 28 25 6 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 23 16 5 3
Dyson Daniels S 33 15 7 4
Larry Nance Jr. 23 12 1 1
Clint Capela S 25 8 4 2
Garrison Mathews 19 5 3 0
Vit Krejci 11 3 1 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · Dunk (2 pts) · 10:22 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes 2-foot dunk (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI
15%
2 Trae Young ATL
12%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
4 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
10%
5 Coby White CHI
10%
6 Clint Capela ATL
10%
7 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
9 Zach LaVine CHI
8%
10 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
34%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 24.8 3.9 11.5
2 Zach LaVine CHI 23.2 4.2 5.2
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.4 10.0 3.6
4 Jalen Johnson ATL 20.8 10.6 6.6
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 20.6 4.0 1.9
6 Coby White CHI 16.4 3.6 4.0
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 15.7 4.3 6.4
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.5 5.3 4.2
9 Patrick Williams CHI 12.6 4.0 2.8
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.0 2.8 1.3
11 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 9.0 4.5 1.7
12 Clint Capela ATL 8.4 10.2 1.4
13 Jalen Smith CHI 7.5 6.0 1.0
14 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 6.9 2.4 1.3
15 Julian Phillips CHI 5.8 2.3 0.9
16 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.6 1.5 1.0
17 Keaton Wallace ATL 5.1 2.0 2.0
18 Dalen Terry CHI 4.3 1.5 0.9
19 Torrey Craig CHI 3.9 1.4 0.5
20 Jevon Carter CHI 3.0 1.3 0.8
21 Vit Krejci ATL 2.9 2.0 1.3
22 Chris Duarte CHI 2.8 1.6 0.7
23 David Roddy ATL 2.8 1.2 0.7
24 Dominick Barlow ATL 2.0 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.