NBA games

CHA @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
110–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA29253323110
WSH34342817113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home WSH
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 38 31 6 6
Miles Bridges S 34 22 14 6
Brandon Miller S 36 18 3 9
Mark Williams S 26 16 8 5
Vasilije Micic 10 6 0 1
Tidjane Salaun 13 6 4 0
Nick Richards 16 6 5 1
Josh Green S 30 3 3 2
Cody Martin 19 2 4 1
DaQuan Jeffries 7 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 35 25 6 3
Bilal Coulibaly S 31 20 6 5
Alex Sarr S 25 15 3 1
Jonas Valanciunas 23 14 12 3
Corey Kispert 30 13 2 2
Malcolm Brogdon 30 11 3 6
Justin Champagnie S 13 8 6 0
Bub Carrington S 28 7 1 3
Kyshawn George 24 0 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes 2-foot alley oop dunk shot (LaMelo Ball assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Miller CHA
10%
2 Malcolm Brogdon WSH
10%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
8%
6 Jonas Valanciunas WSH
8%
7 Mark Williams CHA
8%
8 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
7%
9 Josh Green CHA
6%
10 Bub Carrington WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
44%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 30.1 6.0 9.3
2 Jordan Poole WSH 23.5 3.7 6.4
3 Brandon Miller CHA 23.0 5.1 4.0
4 Miles Bridges CHA 20.6 7.0 4.0
5 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 17.5 5.0 3.9
6 Alex Sarr WSH 14.4 7.1 2.1
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 13.9 5.7 4.6
8 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 12.0 8.7 2.5
9 Vasilije Micic CHA 11.9 3.2 5.4
10 Corey Kispert WSH 11.7 3.8 1.7
11 Cody Martin CHA 10.9 4.5 2.6
12 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.5 6.5 1.6
13 Bub Carrington WSH 10.5 4.7 2.8
14 Josh Green CHA 9.7 3.2 1.8
15 Nick Richards CHA 9.5 7.3 1.4
16 Mark Williams CHA 8.8 6.5 1.5
17 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 7.1 3.1 1.2
18 Kyshawn George WSH 7.0 3.7 1.7
19 Jared Butler WSH 6.9 1.8 2.7
20 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.9 4.3 1.7
21 Isaiah Wong CHA 6.7 2.5 2.2
22 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.8 5.9 1.1
23 Seth Curry CHA 4.4 1.6 0.8
24 Johnny Davis WSH 4.3 2.2 0.9
25 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 3.6 1.5 0.5
26 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.5 2.8 0.5
27 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 2.8 1.3 0.6
28 Taj Gibson CHA 2.4 2.3 0.5
29 Anthony Gill WSH 2.3 1.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.