NBA games

MIA @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
89–88
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA2219202889
ORL3121191788

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home ORL
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 32 20 3 2
Alec Burks 32 17 6 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 31 15 4 4
Terry Rozier 29 14 4 1
Haywood Highsmith S 27 9 3 0
Nikola Jovic 24 8 4 5
Bam Adebayo S 35 4 9 7
Kel'el Ware 13 2 0 1
Duncan Robinson S 18 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Suggs S 32 29 4 2
Tristan da Silva S 39 18 6 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 32 11 2 2
Goga Bitadze S 33 10 14 2
Trevelin Queen S 37 8 3 2
Wendell Carter Jr. 15 5 6 1
Cory Joseph 8 5 0 0
Anthony Black 14 2 2 1
Jonathan Isaac 13 0 2 0
Cole Anthony 12 0 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trevelin Queen · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Trevelin Queen makes 1-foot dunk (Goga Bitadze assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA
12%
3 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
4 Goga Bitadze ORL
10%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
6 Duncan Robinson MIA
8%
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
8%
8 Trevelin Queen ORL
7%
9 Tristan da Silva ORL
7%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
31%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 23.3 6.2 4.9
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.9 10.1 4.9
3 Jalen Suggs ORL 19.3 4.7 4.9
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 18.5 5.8 4.5
5 Goga Bitadze ORL 12.2 10.1 2.3
6 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.6 2.6 3.2
7 Terry Rozier MIA 10.9 3.6 2.1
8 Anthony Black ORL 10.1 3.3 2.8
9 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.8 3.0 1.4
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 9.7 2.6 1.8
11 Cole Anthony ORL 8.5 2.5 3.6
12 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.1 3.3 1.8
13 Nikola Jovic MIA 8.0 2.8 1.2
14 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.0 6.6 2.0
15 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.8 3.0 1.3
16 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.1 2.3 1.3
17 Josh Christopher MIA 5.8 1.7 2.4
18 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.2 3.8 0.7
19 Alec Burks MIA 5.1 2.0 1.0
20 Kel'el Ware MIA 4.0 2.6 0.5
21 Trevelin Queen ORL 4.0 1.3 0.9
22 Kevin Love MIA 3.7 2.8 0.9
23 Jett Howard ORL 3.7 1.1 0.7
24 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.3 1.6 0.5
25 Isaiah Stevens MIA 3.3 1.3 2.3
26 Caleb Houstan ORL 1.9 0.5 0.4
27 Cory Joseph ORL 1.6 0.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.