NBA games

OKC @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
120–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC19343037120
IND29322330114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home IND
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 45 7 8
Jalen Williams S 36 20 4 5
Luguentz Dort S 35 13 7 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 34 11 13 1
Kenrich Williams 17 9 6 0
Ajay Mitchell 16 9 1 0
Isaiah Joe 17 5 2 2
Jaylin Williams 10 3 3 1
Cason Wallace S 30 2 2 1
Aaron Wiggins 6 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Nembhard S 29 23 9 7
Pascal Siakam S 31 22 10 3
Bennedict Mathurin S 39 18 6 3
T.J. McConnell 19 13 3 3
Myles Turner S 33 12 11 2
Jarace Walker 15 12 5 0
Ben Sheppard 22 5 1 2
Obi Toppin 7 5 3 0
Tyrese Haliburton S 35 4 2 8
Thomas Bryant 10 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andrew Nembhard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Andrew Nembhard makes 20-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
15%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
4 Myles Turner IND
10%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
7 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
8 Tyrese Haliburton IND
7%
9 Aaron Nesmith IND
7%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
26%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.6 6.0 5.4
2 Jalen Williams OKC 22.5 5.2 5.0
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.0 4.2 8.0
4 Pascal Siakam IND 17.8 7.5 2.7
5 T.J. McConnell IND 14.8 3.5 4.9
6 Myles Turner IND 14.5 6.5 2.1
7 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 13.2 11.2 3.7
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.2 5.7 2.2
9 Obi Toppin IND 12.6 5.7 1.9
10 Andrew Nembhard IND 12.3 3.1 4.4
11 Cason Wallace OKC 9.0 4.0 2.3
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.8 4.4 1.5
13 Aaron Nesmith IND 7.8 3.2 1.1
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.7 2.4 1.4
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.4 2.4 1.1
16 Quenton Jackson IND 6.1 1.9 1.6
17 Jarace Walker IND 5.8 3.1 1.4
18 Ajay Mitchell OKC 5.7 2.6 1.7
19 Ben Sheppard IND 5.7 2.5 1.2
20 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.4 3.1 1.1
21 Thomas Bryant IND 3.5 3.6 0.5
22 Dillon Jones OKC 3.1 1.8 0.7
23 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.1 2.0 0.7
24 Johnny Furphy IND 3.1 1.5 0.5
25 James Johnson IND 1.4 0.9 0.4
26 Enrique Freeman IND 1.3 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.