NBA games

DEN @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
100–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN34222222100
PHX38202725110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home PHX
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 38 25 15 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 37 22 4 2
Russell Westbrook 27 17 6 2
Jamal Murray S 39 13 6 6
Aaron Gordon S 19 7 3 2
Christian Braun S 28 5 5 3
Julian Strawther 18 5 2 1
DeAndre Jordan 10 4 2 0
Peyton Watson 24 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 38 27 4 6
Bradley Beal S 38 27 2 4
Tyus Jones S 30 17 3 4
Monte Morris 18 11 2 3
Jusuf Nurkic S 30 8 13 6
Josh Okogie 17 7 2 0
Ryan Dunn S 21 5 3 1
Royce O'Neale 30 5 8 6
Mason Plumlee 13 3 4 1
Oso Ighodaro 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 1-foot dunk (Bradley Beal assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
17%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
11%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
10%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
10%
6 Christian Braun DEN
8%
7 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
7%
9 Aaron Gordon DEN
7%
10 Russell Westbrook DEN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
20%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.0 11.0 9.7
2 Kevin Durant PHX 26.3 6.9 4.9
3 Jamal Murray DEN 22.6 4.2 6.6
4 Bradley Beal PHX 21.8 4.5 3.6
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 19.2 6.5 3.2
6 Tyus Jones PHX 17.4 2.7 6.0
7 Russell Westbrook DEN 13.6 4.6 7.1
8 Royce O'Neale PHX 13.5 4.6 2.6
9 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.1 4.6 3.0
10 Christian Braun DEN 12.7 5.6 2.4
11 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.7 8.6 2.5
12 Julian Strawther DEN 9.5 2.4 1.5
13 Peyton Watson DEN 7.2 3.6 1.6
14 Monte Morris PHX 6.1 2.1 2.2
15 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.5 2.6 1.1
16 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.9 6.3 1.4
17 Dario Saric DEN 4.7 3.1 1.2
18 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.5 3.4 1.1
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.3 1.5 2.2
20 Josh Okogie PHX 4.3 2.3 1.0
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 4.0 2.2 0.8
22 Damion Lee PHX 4.0 1.3 0.9
23 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.1 3.9 1.0
24 Jalen Bridges PHX 2.7 1.6 0.7
25 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.4 1.0 0.6
26 Spencer Jones DEN 2.4 1.3 0.5
27 Trey Alexander DEN 2.4 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.