NBA games

LAL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
115–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL23322931115
GS23292437113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home GS
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 37 31 4 10
Austin Reaves S 37 26 10 10
Rui Hachimura S 39 18 4 1
Max Christie S 34 16 4 2
Dalton Knecht 25 13 7 2
Gabe Vincent 29 5 3 3
Cam Reddish 23 4 1 2
Christian Koloko 9 2 6 0
Anthony Davis S 7 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 36 38 1 6
Andrew Wiggins S 35 21 12 3
Jonathan Kuminga 28 14 6 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 26 11 9 4
Dennis Schroder S 28 11 2 5
Brandin Podziemski 24 6 3 1
Buddy Hield 17 5 0 0
Gary Payton II 7 4 1 0
Draymond Green S 34 3 10 6
Kevon Looney 5 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · Layup (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 2-foot layup (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
15%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
3 LeBron James LAL
11%
4 Dennis Schroder GS
10%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
6 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
7 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
7%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
9 Max Christie LAL
6%
10 Kyle Anderson GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
34%
Jumper
14%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 25.3 8.1 9.1
2 Anthony Davis LAL 24.0 11.9 4.1
3 Stephen Curry GS 22.2 4.5 6.6
4 Dennis Schroder GS 19.8 3.2 6.3
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 18.2 5.3 2.8
6 Austin Reaves LAL 18.0 4.1 4.5
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 17.9 4.2 2.9
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL 14.4 3.9 4.6
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.7 5.9 2.1
10 Buddy Hield GS 10.6 3.3 1.5
11 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.5 4.7 3.0
12 Draymond Green GS 10.2 6.0 5.2
13 Max Christie LAL 9.9 3.5 1.8
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 7.9 2.5 1.7
15 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.3 3.6 1.2
16 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.1 5.0 1.5
17 Kevon Looney GS 6.0 6.3 1.9
18 Lindy Waters III GS 5.4 2.8 1.2
19 Moses Moody GS 5.4 1.9 0.8
20 Quincy Olivari LAL 5.0 2.0 0.9
21 Cam Reddish LAL 4.6 2.2 1.0
22 Gary Payton II GS 4.2 3.4 1.0
23 Kyle Anderson GS 4.2 2.0 1.5
24 Quinten Post GS 3.3 1.3 0.7
25 Bronny James LAL 2.1 1.0 0.3
26 Christian Koloko LAL 1.9 2.0 0.3
27 Armel Traore LAL 1.7 2.3 0.3
28 Gui Santos GS 1.4 0.9 0.4
29 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.3 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.