NBA games

PHI @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
118–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI30361636118
BOS25332432114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home BOS
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 41 33 4 12
Joel Embiid S 31 27 9 2
Caleb Martin S 38 23 3 2
Paul George S 34 12 4 4
Guerschon Yabusele 21 12 4 1
Kyle Lowry 21 5 3 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 38 4 8 2
Reggie Jackson 17 2 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 42 32 15 4
Jaylen Brown S 43 23 7 4
Derrick White S 33 21 3 4
Al Horford S 33 17 4 2
Kristaps Porzingis S 13 9 2 3
Luke Kornet 20 6 10 2
Payton Pritchard 33 4 3 5
Neemias Queta 8 2 5 0
Jordan Walsh 1 0 0 0
Sam Hauser 13 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Al Horford · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Al Horford makes 22-foot three point shot (Jaylen Brown assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI
14%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
13%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
12%
5 Joel Embiid PHI
11%
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
7 Paul George PHI
10%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Al Horford BOS
7%
10 Drew Peterson BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
34%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.6 10.3 5.6
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 24.9 4.6 5.9
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.5 5.2 5.7
4 Joel Embiid PHI 22.9 7.5 4.3
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 17.5 6.6 1.9
6 Paul George PHI 16.9 5.9 5.0
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.9 5.1 3.6
8 Derrick White BOS 15.1 4.9 5.1
9 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 13.4 6.6 1.9
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 9.5 4.8 1.9
11 Al Horford BOS 9.0 5.3 1.8
12 Sam Hauser BOS 8.6 3.3 1.3
13 Ricky Council IV PHI 7.6 3.3 1.0
14 Caleb Martin PHI 6.9 3.5 1.5
15 Luke Kornet BOS 5.8 6.1 1.3
16 Andre Drummond PHI 5.3 6.6 0.8
17 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.8 1.6 1.6
18 Eric Gordon PHI 4.1 1.4 1.0
19 Neemias Queta BOS 4.1 3.9 0.7
20 Kyle Lowry PHI 3.6 1.4 1.6
21 Drew Peterson BOS 3.5 1.7 0.6
22 JD Davison BOS 2.8 0.8 0.9
23 Justin Edwards PHI 2.5 1.2 0.3
24 Adem Bona PHI 2.4 2.5 0.4
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.4 1.3 0.5
26 Jaden Springer BOS 2.1 1.0 0.6
27 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.9 1.5 0.5
28 Baylor Scheierman BOS 1.6 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.