NBA games

MIN @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
105–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN26313315105
DAL2416283199

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home DAL
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 39 26 8 5
Julius Randle S 34 23 10 8
Rudy Gobert S 39 14 10 0
Donte DiVincenzo 25 11 3 1
Mike Conley S 26 10 2 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 15 8 3 2
Naz Reid 22 6 2 2
Jaden McDaniels S 35 5 6 2
Josh Minott 5 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 37 39 5 2
Luka Doncic S 16 14 5 2
Klay Thompson S 29 12 4 1
Quentin Grimes 24 10 7 2
P.J. Washington S 40 7 7 2
Dereck Lively II S 30 6 10 3
Maxi Kleber 23 5 2 1
Naji Marshall 14 4 2 0
Spencer Dinwiddie 14 2 1 2
Daniel Gafford 13 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes 1-foot dunk (Anthony Edwards assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
3 Luka Doncic DAL
11%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
5 Julius Randle MIN
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
7 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
8 Klay Thompson DAL
8%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
32%
Jumper
24%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 27.6 9.3 8.2
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 22.7 4.9 5.4
3 Anthony Edwards MIN 22.0 5.7 5.3
4 Julius Randle MIN 20.0 7.1 4.6
5 Naji Marshall DAL 14.9 3.5 1.9
6 P.J. Washington DAL 14.8 6.7 2.9
7 Klay Thompson DAL 13.9 3.8 2.2
8 Quentin Grimes DAL 12.2 3.9 2.1
9 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 12.0 2.9 4.3
10 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.5 6.3 1.6
11 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.8 9.5 1.9
12 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.6 4.9 1.7
13 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.5 3.3 2.4
14 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.4 8.7 2.5
15 Naz Reid MIN 10.3 5.0 1.9
16 Mike Conley MIN 10.0 2.9 4.7
17 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.7 3.4 3.6
18 Jaden Hardy DAL 6.4 1.5 1.1
19 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.7 2.5 1.0
20 Leonard Miller MIN 4.6 3.5 0.7
21 Rob Dillingham MIN 4.6 1.4 1.8
22 Josh Minott MIN 4.1 1.9 0.9
23 Maxi Kleber DAL 3.7 3.0 0.9
24 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.3 2.3 0.8
25 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.7 1.2 0.7
26 Jazian Gortman DAL 2.7 1.1 0.6
27 PJ Dozier MIN 2.6 1.3 0.8
28 Dwight Powell DAL 2.4 1.5 0.6
29 Markieff Morris DAL 1.4 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.