NBA games

SA @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
114–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA27312531114
NY28233729117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home NY
16% 84%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 40 42 18 4
Jeremy Sochan S 33 21 9 2
Chris Paul S 36 13 6 7
Devin Vassell S 36 11 3 5
Julian Champagnie 26 9 2 1
Tre Jones 16 7 1 9
Stephon Castle 17 6 2 3
Harrison Barnes S 17 3 1 1
Keldon Johnson 18 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 43 41 1 4
Karl-Anthony Towns S 30 21 9 2
Jalen Brunson S 38 20 7 9
Josh Hart S 38 12 12 6
OG Anunoby S 36 8 5 1
Miles McBride 30 8 3 2
Precious Achiuwa 20 5 10 1
Cameron Payne 5 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
13%
2 OG Anunoby NY
11%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
11%
4 Josh Hart NY
11%
5 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
7 Devin Vassell SA
9%
8 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
9 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
10 Chris Paul SA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
43%
Jumper
13%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 34.8 11.6 4.7
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.3 13.4 5.1
3 Jalen Brunson NY 24.0 3.2 7.7
4 Mikal Bridges NY 21.5 3.3 4.1
5 OG Anunoby NY 16.6 4.9 2.7
6 Josh Hart NY 16.1 7.3 5.4
7 Devin Vassell SA 15.1 3.6 2.1
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.3 8.1 2.7
9 Julian Champagnie SA 13.2 4.7 1.4
10 Stephon Castle SA 12.7 2.9 4.0
11 Keldon Johnson SA 11.0 3.9 1.6
12 Miles McBride NY 10.5 2.8 3.7
13 Chris Paul SA 10.1 4.7 7.5
14 Harrison Barnes SA 8.9 2.6 1.4
15 Landry Shamet NY 8.5 2.6 1.4
16 Precious Achiuwa NY 7.6 7.0 1.5
17 Cameron Payne NY 6.8 2.1 1.9
18 Charles Bassey SA 5.5 5.7 0.6
19 Tre Jones SA 5.1 2.3 2.9
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.7 2.4 0.6
21 Tyler Kolek NY 3.5 1.4 1.0
22 Blake Wesley SA 3.3 1.2 1.7
23 Jericho Sims NY 3.2 3.1 0.9
24 Zach Collins SA 3.1 2.2 0.8
25 Malaki Branham SA 2.7 1.1 1.3
26 Jacob Toppin NY 2.7 1.5 0.7
27 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.5 1.7 0.6
28 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.3 1.0 0.6
29 Matt Ryan NY 2.2 0.6 0.5
30 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.0 0.9 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.