NBA games

DET @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
117–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET34283124117
LAL32322822114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home LAL
79% 21%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Beasley 26 21 5 0
Cade Cunningham S 35 20 5 10
Jaden Ivey S 29 18 3 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 25 15 0 0
Simone Fontecchio 19 13 2 0
Ronald Holland II 13 10 4 1
Ausar Thompson 16 8 5 0
Tobias Harris S 29 6 1 4
Jalen Duren S 27 6 9 2
Paul Reed 20 0 3 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 35 28 11 11
Anthony Davis S 39 19 10 6
Max Christie S 33 17 1 0
Austin Reaves S 37 12 7 2
Rui Hachimura S 29 10 1 1
Gabe Vincent 19 9 2 1
Dalton Knecht 16 7 2 1
Cam Reddish 17 7 4 1
D'Angelo Russell 16 5 0 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
2 LeBron James LAL
13%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
10%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
6 Jalen Duren DET
10%
7 Tobias Harris DET
9%
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
10 Max Christie LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
18%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.3 6.4 10.3
2 LeBron James LAL 25.4 7.8 9.9
3 Anthony Davis LAL 24.8 12.1 4.2
4 Austin Reaves LAL 18.2 3.7 5.2
5 Jaden Ivey DET 17.5 4.1 4.9
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL 16.9 4.0 4.8
7 Malik Beasley DET 15.4 3.4 2.3
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.9 6.1 2.2
9 Tobias Harris DET 12.1 5.5 2.1
10 Jalen Duren DET 10.7 8.3 2.0
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.9 3.0 1.4
12 Max Christie LAL 9.6 3.4 1.8
13 Marcus Sasser DET 7.8 1.4 2.4
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 7.7 2.4 1.7
15 Simone Fontecchio DET 7.4 2.6 1.3
16 Ronald Holland II DET 7.4 3.1 1.4
17 Ausar Thompson DET 7.2 3.5 2.3
18 Dalton Knecht LAL 7.2 3.6 1.5
19 Quincy Olivari LAL 5.5 2.0 0.9
20 Paul Reed DET 4.9 2.8 0.9
21 Cam Reddish LAL 4.3 1.8 1.1
22 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.0 2.7 1.0
23 Christian Koloko LAL 2.7 2.3 0.6
24 Bronny James LAL 2.3 1.0 0.4
25 Armel Traore LAL 1.9 2.2 0.4
26 Maxwell Lewis LAL 1.5 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.