NBA games

IND @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
111–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND33292722111
GS32223120105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home GS
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Myles Turner S 35 23 10 1
Pascal Siakam S 34 20 5 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 38 16 6 12
Andrew Nembhard S 33 15 4 3
T.J. McConnell 20 13 0 5
Bennedict Mathurin S 36 12 5 2
Obi Toppin 18 8 4 1
Jarace Walker 4 2 2 0
Thomas Bryant 10 2 3 1
Ben Sheppard 11 0 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jonathan Kuminga 30 26 8 4
Andrew Wiggins S 34 16 4 3
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 23 13 8 3
Buddy Hield 16 13 4 1
Stephen Curry S 35 10 5 7
Dennis Schroder S 30 9 0 3
Kevon Looney 9 6 2 1
Brandin Podziemski 26 5 6 2
Draymond Green S 26 4 7 5
Moses Moody 10 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dennis Schroder · Layup (2 pts) · 11:33 Q1
"Dennis Schroder makes 3-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
21%
2 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
3 Dennis Schroder GS
9%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
8%
5 Myles Turner IND
7%
6 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
7%
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND
7%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
9 Tyrese Haliburton IND
6%
10 Aaron Nesmith IND
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
18%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 22.5 4.5 6.5
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 19.8 3.7 8.4
3 Dennis Schroder GS 19.8 3.6 6.7
4 Pascal Siakam IND 18.7 7.8 2.9
5 Jonathan Kuminga GS 18.2 4.9 2.5
6 Andrew Wiggins GS 17.5 4.1 2.8
7 T.J. McConnell IND 15.2 3.6 5.3
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND 14.0 5.1 2.2
9 Myles Turner IND 13.7 6.4 2.2
10 Obi Toppin IND 12.9 5.8 2.2
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.8 2.9 4.6
12 Buddy Hield GS 11.0 3.1 1.5
13 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.0 5.1 3.3
14 Draymond Green GS 10.3 6.0 5.1
15 Aaron Nesmith IND 8.0 3.2 1.2
16 Ben Sheppard IND 7.3 2.6 1.5
17 Jarace Walker IND 6.7 3.5 1.7
18 Kevon Looney GS 5.9 6.6 1.9
19 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.8 4.2 1.3
20 Lindy Waters III GS 5.7 2.8 1.2
21 Gary Payton II GS 5.2 3.6 1.2
22 Kyle Anderson GS 5.1 2.3 1.7
23 Thomas Bryant IND 4.3 3.7 0.6
24 Johnny Furphy IND 4.3 2.0 0.7
25 Moses Moody GS 3.9 1.2 0.7
26 James Johnson IND 2.5 1.5 0.7
27 Gui Santos GS 1.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.