NBA games

PHX @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
90–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX2625281190
DEN27284517117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home DEN
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bradley Beal S 35 23 0 2
Kevin Durant S 31 23 9 2
Tyus Jones S 23 9 2 2
Oso Ighodaro 18 7 6 1
Monte Morris 20 7 4 3
Mason Plumlee 15 6 4 2
Royce O'Neale S 29 6 2 4
Ryan Dunn 30 5 4 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 15 4 4 4
Jalen Bridges 5 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 30 32 2 7
Michael Porter Jr. S 30 24 6 4
Aaron Gordon S 23 12 2 1
Russell Westbrook S 25 11 5 7
Jalen Pickett 23 11 3 8
Julian Strawther 18 9 2 1
Hunter Tyson 16 6 4 0
Peyton Watson 21 4 6 1
DeAndre Jordan 14 4 5 1
Christian Braun S 26 4 7 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bradley Beal · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Bradley Beal makes 9-foot pullup jump shot (Jusuf Nurkic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kevin Durant PHX
15%
2 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
13%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
12%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
12%
5 Christian Braun DEN
11%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
7 Tyus Jones PHX
9%
8 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
9 Royce O'Neale PHX
8%
10 Jalen Bridges PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
39%
Jumper
28%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.8 10.7 10.6
2 Kevin Durant PHX 27.2 6.9 5.0
3 Bradley Beal PHX 22.6 4.9 3.5
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 19.3 6.5 3.2
5 Tyus Jones PHX 17.4 2.6 6.4
6 Royce O'Neale PHX 14.0 4.7 2.6
7 Russell Westbrook DEN 13.7 4.4 6.9
8 Christian Braun DEN 13.5 5.2 2.3
9 Aaron Gordon DEN 13.3 4.8 3.5
10 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.8 9.1 2.2
11 Julian Strawther DEN 9.6 2.2 1.6
12 Peyton Watson DEN 7.7 3.4 1.6
13 Monte Morris PHX 5.5 1.7 2.1
14 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.2 2.7 1.1
15 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.8 6.4 1.4
16 Damion Lee PHX 4.2 1.3 1.0
17 Oso Ighodaro PHX 3.8 3.1 0.9
18 Josh Okogie PHX 3.5 1.8 0.6
19 Dario Saric DEN 3.3 2.5 0.9
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.2 3.8 1.1
21 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.0 1.6 0.6
22 Jalen Bridges PHX 2.7 1.6 0.7
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.1 0.6 1.3
24 Spencer Jones DEN 1.5 0.6 0.3
25 Trey Alexander DEN 1.5 0.5 0.4
26 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.4 0.5 0.3
27 PJ Hall DEN 1.4 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.