NBA games

POR @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
108–132
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR31222332108
DAL28344030132

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home DAL
15% 85%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija 23 19 6 3
Deandre Ayton S 26 16 9 0
Scoot Henderson 26 14 6 4
Shaedon Sharpe S 24 13 2 3
Jabari Walker 8 13 5 0
Anfernee Simons S 29 10 0 5
Rayan Rupert 8 6 1 0
Toumani Camara S 30 5 12 0
Donovan Clingan 15 4 3 1
Jerami Grant S 20 3 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 30 27 7 7
Daniel Gafford 21 23 5 2
Kyrie Irving S 29 20 3 2
Klay Thompson S 18 13 2 2
P.J. Washington S 24 12 4 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 11 8 5 1
Dwight Powell 11 7 3 0
Quentin Grimes 17 5 3 4
Dereck Lively II S 16 4 4 1
Naji Marshall 16 4 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Klay Thompson · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dereck Lively II assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
12%
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
3 Kyrie Irving DAL
11%
4 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
6 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
7 Luka Doncic DAL
8%
8 Klay Thompson DAL
7%
9 Jerami Grant POR
7%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
22%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 30.9 9.1 8.6
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.8 4.8 6.2
3 Anfernee Simons POR 22.1 3.5 6.5
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 18.8 4.3 3.4
5 Naji Marshall DAL 16.7 3.6 2.2
6 Deni Avdija POR 16.6 4.9 3.7
7 Klay Thompson DAL 16.0 4.0 2.4
8 P.J. Washington DAL 15.7 7.1 3.4
9 Jerami Grant POR 15.4 4.0 2.8
10 Quentin Grimes DAL 14.9 4.1 2.2
11 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 14.2 3.0 5.5
12 Deandre Ayton POR 13.8 9.3 2.0
13 Daniel Gafford DAL 11.4 6.8 1.8
14 Dereck Lively II DAL 11.2 8.9 2.8
15 Scoot Henderson POR 10.9 3.1 4.8
16 Toumani Camara POR 10.3 5.2 1.9
17 Dalano Banton POR 8.9 2.7 2.8
18 Donovan Clingan POR 7.3 8.2 1.2
19 Robert Williams III POR 6.7 5.5 1.1
20 Kris Murray POR 4.7 1.8 0.8
21 Jabari Walker POR 4.3 3.4 0.9
22 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.1 3.0 1.0
23 Rayan Rupert POR 3.6 1.6 0.9
24 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.5 2.0 1.0
25 Duop Reath POR 3.4 1.3 0.6
26 Jazian Gortman DAL 3.2 1.0 0.9
27 Dwight Powell DAL 2.7 1.5 0.8
28 Kessler Edwards DAL 2.7 1.0 0.6
29 Markieff Morris DAL 2.0 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.