NBA games

WSH @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
105–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH32312418105
OKC29382432123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home OKC
4% 96%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 38 31 3 7
Bub Carrington S 29 14 2 3
Malcolm Brogdon S 26 12 6 5
Jonas Valanciunas S 29 12 16 1
Kyshawn George 28 11 3 1
Corey Kispert 26 8 3 3
Marvin Bagley III 16 7 6 1
Jared Butler 8 5 1 1
Justin Champagnie S 29 3 8 2
Patrick Baldwin Jr. 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 35 41 9 3
Jalen Williams S 29 17 7 4
Ajay Mitchell 22 16 12 2
Isaiah Hartenstein S 27 16 11 3
Cason Wallace 28 9 4 4
Aaron Wiggins 14 7 1 0
Kenrich Williams 13 7 8 1
Isaiah Joe S 19 5 2 1
Jaylin Williams 8 3 0 2
Alex Caruso 15 2 2 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Isaiah Joe · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Isaiah Joe makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
18%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
15%
3 Malcolm Brogdon WSH
14%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
13%
5 Luguentz Dort OKC
12%
6 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
7 Justin Champagnie WSH
9%
8 Cason Wallace OKC
8%
9 Corey Kispert WSH
0%
10 Jonas Valanciunas WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
30%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 31.3 5.9 6.1
2 Jalen Williams OKC 23.7 5.1 5.4
3 Jordan Poole WSH 21.2 3.7 5.6
4 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 16.1 4.6 3.3
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 14.2 12.6 4.4
6 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 11.2 7.7 2.4
7 Corey Kispert WSH 10.8 3.8 1.5
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 10.1 4.5 1.8
9 Justin Champagnie WSH 9.9 5.7 1.4
10 Cason Wallace OKC 8.6 4.2 2.3
11 Bub Carrington WSH 8.5 4.6 2.6
12 Alex Caruso OKC 7.8 3.2 2.1
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 6.8 2.3 1.5
14 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.6 2.9 1.2
15 Kyshawn George WSH 5.9 3.6 1.8
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.6 2.8 1.1
17 Jared Butler WSH 5.3 1.2 2.2
18 Ajay Mitchell OKC 5.0 1.6 1.5
19 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 3.7 1.5 0.4
20 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.5 2.4 1.0
21 Marvin Bagley III WSH 3.3 2.4 0.3
22 Dillon Jones OKC 3.2 1.7 0.8
23 Johnny Davis WSH 2.6 1.6 0.4
24 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.2 2.1 0.2
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.2 1.3 0.3
26 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.4 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.