NBA games

LAC @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
114–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC28234023114
MEM30283220110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home MEM
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 37 29 3 2
James Harden S 36 21 8 9
Ivica Zubac S 40 20 19 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 22 13 2 0
Kevin Porter Jr. 20 13 6 4
Kris Dunn S 27 7 4 2
Nicolas Batum 28 6 5 4
Amir Coffey 25 5 5 0
Mo Bamba 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 30 24 6 3
Ja Morant S 29 23 6 4
Desmond Bane S 32 21 9 7
Scotty Pippen Jr. 19 13 2 2
Santi Aldama 31 11 7 3
Jake LaRavia 22 8 6 2
Jaylen Wells S 28 7 3 2
Zach Edey S 27 3 14 1
Brandon Clarke 7 0 2 2
Luke Kennard 16 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Ja Morant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
2 Norman Powell LAC
11%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
10%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
5 James Harden LAC
10%
6 Ja Morant MEM
10%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
8 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
9 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM
7%
10 Zach Edey MEM
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
35%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 25.3 5.1 7.8
2 Ja Morant MEM 22.8 4.5 6.9
3 Norman Powell LAC 22.4 3.7 3.1
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 19.7 6.1 2.3
5 Desmond Bane MEM 15.7 4.8 5.9
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.0 11.6 2.6
7 Santi Aldama MEM 14.3 6.4 2.6
8 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 13.7 4.7 3.5
9 Zach Edey MEM 12.4 8.2 1.6
10 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.3 3.5 1.6
11 Amir Coffey LAC 10.2 2.9 1.5
12 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 8.8 3.2 1.4
13 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.7 6.4 1.5
14 Jake LaRavia MEM 8.5 3.5 2.4
15 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 7.4 2.6 4.2
16 Luke Kennard MEM 7.0 2.4 1.7
17 Kris Dunn LAC 6.9 3.1 2.1
18 Bones Hyland LAC 6.8 1.4 1.2
19 Jordan Miller LAC 6.2 2.4 1.2
20 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.2 2.6 1.6
21 Mo Bamba LAC 4.6 3.7 0.7
22 Cam Spencer MEM 4.2 1.6 1.2
23 John Konchar MEM 3.3 2.2 1.1
24 Kai Jones LAC 2.7 1.9 0.6
25 Cam Christie LAC 2.4 1.1 0.3
26 Yuki Kawamura MEM 1.2 0.4 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.