NBA games

MIL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
112–91
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL33263320112
CHI1728271991

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home CHI
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Khris Middleton S 23 21 5 5
Brook Lopez S 36 21 2 1
Bobby Portis S 32 19 13 6
Gary Trent Jr. 17 14 4 0
AJ Green 25 10 2 3
Delon Wright 26 9 4 5
Ryan Rollins S 22 8 5 1
Andre Jackson Jr. S 23 4 5 1
Taurean Prince 23 4 5 2
Tyler Smith 4 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 31 17 12 3
Zach LaVine S 34 14 6 3
Jalen Smith 17 14 7 2
Patrick Williams S 23 13 4 1
Coby White S 34 10 2 3
Dalen Terry 16 8 3 1
Ayo Dosunmu S 34 5 4 11
Matas Buzelis 15 4 2 1
Julian Phillips 14 2 1 0
Talen Horton-Tucker 13 2 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Coby White · Layup (2 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Coby White makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
12%
2 Coby White CHI
12%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
4 Bobby Portis MIL
11%
5 Zach LaVine CHI
10%
6 Patrick Williams CHI
10%
7 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
9 Ryan Rollins MIL
8%
10 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
38%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
18%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.9 9.9 3.5
2 Zach LaVine CHI 21.0 4.0 4.9
3 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.3 4.2 5.1
4 Coby White CHI 15.4 3.8 3.9
5 Bobby Portis MIL 14.7 7.5 3.3
6 Patrick Williams CHI 11.5 4.4 2.7
7 Brook Lopez MIL 10.4 4.7 1.3
8 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.3 2.8 1.4
9 Khris Middleton MIL 10.2 3.5 5.3
10 AJ Green MIL 8.1 2.6 2.0
11 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 8.0 2.3 1.3
12 Jalen Smith CHI 7.1 6.3 1.0
13 Matas Buzelis CHI 6.9 3.4 1.1
14 Taurean Prince MIL 6.5 2.8 1.8
15 Julian Phillips CHI 5.7 2.4 0.8
16 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.4 2.9 1.6
17 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.1 2.0 1.4
18 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.1 2.4 1.3
19 Dalen Terry CHI 4.6 1.4 1.0
20 Delon Wright MIL 4.4 2.4 1.1
21 Torrey Craig CHI 3.6 1.3 0.4
22 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.1 1.7 0.6
23 Liam Robbins MIL 2.9 2.0 0.8
24 Jevon Carter CHI 2.8 1.2 0.7
25 Stanley Umude MIL 2.5 1.2 0.6
26 E.J. Liddell CHI 2.1 1.0 0.4
27 Chris Duarte CHI 2.0 1.0 0.3
28 Tyler Smith MIL 1.9 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.