NBA games

TOR @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
125–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR28243043125
NY30404128139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home NY
10% 90%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 36 24 3 8
RJ Barrett S 33 23 6 6
Chris Boucher 19 16 3 1
Ja'Kobe Walter 25 16 1 0
Gradey Dick S 31 16 5 3
Jonathan Mogbo S 23 8 4 2
Kelly Olynyk 18 6 3 2
Davion Mitchell 12 5 0 3
Jamison Battle 14 4 2 2
Ochai Agbaji S 20 4 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 31 10 7
OG Anunoby S 34 31 7 4
Cameron Payne 15 19 2 0
Mikal Bridges S 41 14 1 4
Jalen Brunson S 32 12 1 7
Miles McBride 25 12 4 5
Josh Hart S 31 11 3 4
Precious Achiuwa 22 5 7 2
Landry Shamet 1 2 0 0
Jericho Sims 3 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes 12-foot two point shot (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
13%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
3 Josh Hart NY
8%
4 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
5 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
8%
7 OG Anunoby NY
7%
8 Jalen Brunson NY
7%
9 Bruno Fernando TOR
7%
10 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
28%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.2 3.5 7.2
2 RJ Barrett TOR 25.0 7.1 5.8
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 23.2 12.5 5.5
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.8 8.8 7.0
5 Mikal Bridges NY 21.3 3.4 3.7
6 Gradey Dick TOR 16.8 4.3 2.2
7 Josh Hart NY 15.7 7.0 4.8
8 OG Anunoby NY 14.5 5.0 2.2
9 Ochai Agbaji TOR 11.5 3.9 1.5
10 Miles McBride NY 10.3 2.9 3.3
11 Landry Shamet NY 10.0 3.1 1.6
12 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 9.8 2.8 1.7
13 Precious Achiuwa NY 7.2 6.9 1.4
14 Chris Boucher TOR 7.1 3.9 1.1
15 Kelly Olynyk TOR 7.0 4.5 2.4
16 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 6.7 5.1 2.2
17 Cameron Payne NY 6.5 2.0 2.3
18 Jamison Battle TOR 6.4 2.1 1.1
19 Jamal Shead TOR 5.8 1.7 3.1
20 Davion Mitchell TOR 5.5 1.6 2.9
21 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.2 1.9 0.9
22 Jericho Sims NY 3.0 3.5 0.7
23 Tyler Kolek NY 2.8 1.1 0.8
24 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.7 2.0 0.8
25 Bruno Fernando TOR 2.6 2.3 0.9
26 Pacome Dadiet NY 2.5 1.2 0.7
27 Ulrich Chomche TOR 2.4 1.8 0.7
28 Jacob Toppin NY 1.3 0.8 0.3
29 Garrett Temple TOR 1.1 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.