NBA games

BKN @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
95–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN2829211795
MIA39192527110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home MIA
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cameron Johnson S 33 19 3 2
Noah Clowney S 30 19 5 1
Keon Johnson S 28 15 5 2
Tyrese Martin 22 14 5 2
Jalen Wilson 30 8 3 1
Nic Claxton S 28 6 10 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 15 6 7 1
Shake Milton 19 4 2 3
Ben Simmons S 30 4 2 9
Dariq Whitehead 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 31 23 7 7
Nikola Jovic 32 18 4 4
Duncan Robinson S 25 17 1 4
Tyler Herro S 39 17 12 9
Alec Burks 24 12 3 1
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 24 9 5 0
Kel'el Ware 17 9 7 0
Haywood Highsmith S 20 3 2 0
Pelle Larsson 17 2 1 1
Dru Smith 7 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cameron Johnson · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:59 Q1
"Cameron Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keon Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
14%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA
12%
4 Nic Claxton BKN
9%
5 Cameron Johnson BKN
9%
6 Duncan Robinson MIA
8%
7 Ben Simmons BKN
8%
8 Keon Johnson BKN
7%
9 Noah Clowney BKN
7%
10 Nikola Jovic MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
39%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.9 5.5 5.1
2 Cameron Johnson BKN 20.4 4.9 4.0
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.4 10.5 5.8
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA 19.3 6.1 5.2
5 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.3 2.7 3.2
6 Terry Rozier MIA 12.0 4.0 2.6
7 Shake Milton BKN 10.7 3.1 2.5
8 Nic Claxton BKN 10.6 7.1 1.6
9 Jalen Wilson BKN 9.6 3.3 1.8
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.4 3.6 2.4
11 Dru Smith MIA 9.4 3.0 2.2
12 Keon Johnson BKN 8.2 3.7 1.6
13 Noah Clowney BKN 8.1 3.4 1.1
14 Ben Simmons BKN 8.1 5.1 6.1
15 Josh Christopher MIA 7.9 2.2 3.2
16 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.8 2.9 1.3
17 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.7 3.4 1.5
18 Tyrese Martin BKN 7.5 2.9 1.5
19 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.7 5.0 0.9
20 Pelle Larsson MIA 6.4 2.6 1.5
21 Kevin Love MIA 5.0 3.3 1.3
22 Jaylen Martin BKN 4.5 1.6 0.7
23 Alec Burks MIA 4.0 1.6 1.1
24 Kel'el Ware MIA 3.5 2.4 0.6
25 Keshad Johnson MIA 3.1 1.1 0.5
26 Dariq Whitehead BKN 2.6 0.9 0.3
27 Reece Beekman BKN 1.5 0.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.