NBA games

MIN @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
104–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN19363019104
ATL35173035117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home ATL
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Naz Reid 29 23 3 3
Julius Randle S 36 19 13 7
Anthony Edwards S 32 16 6 4
Mike Conley S 27 11 2 6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 29 11 4 4
Donte DiVincenzo 19 8 3 3
Jaden McDaniels S 20 6 2 0
Josh Minott 13 4 4 3
Rudy Gobert S 28 2 6 0
Terrence Shannon Jr. 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 31 29 2 7
Garrison Mathews 26 25 2 1
De'Andre Hunter 28 19 4 2
Jalen Johnson S 35 17 11 7
Dyson Daniels S 34 10 4 4
Larry Nance Jr. 21 6 4 2
Zaccharie Risacher S 19 5 0 1
Clint Capela S 26 4 8 2
Vit Krejci 17 2 3 1
David Roddy 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes driving layup (Mike Conley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
13%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
11%
4 Julius Randle MIN
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
6 Clint Capela ATL
9%
7 Vit Krejci ATL
8%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
10 Dyson Daniels ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
24%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.6 5.4 5.2
2 Trae Young ATL 23.6 4.0 9.3
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 20.9 10.1 6.3
4 Julius Randle MIN 20.5 6.7 4.2
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 20.4 4.0 1.8
6 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.6 5.2 4.1
7 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 12.1 3.4 2.2
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.5 10.0 2.0
9 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 10.9 3.2 2.1
10 Mike Conley MIN 10.4 2.8 4.7
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.1 4.8 1.9
12 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 9.5 3.4 3.7
13 Naz Reid MIN 9.4 5.0 1.8
14 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 8.7 3.0 1.2
15 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 8.5 4.3 1.4
16 Clint Capela ATL 8.3 9.8 1.2
17 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.2 2.3 2.3
18 Jaylen Clark MIN 5.6 2.4 1.0
19 Leonard Miller MIN 5.4 4.1 0.9
20 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.7 1.3 1.2
21 Rob Dillingham MIN 4.3 1.1 1.7
22 Josh Minott MIN 3.9 1.7 0.8
23 David Roddy ATL 3.4 1.6 0.9
24 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.6 1.2 1.0
25 Vit Krejci ATL 2.6 1.9 1.3
26 PJ Dozier MIN 1.8 0.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.