NBA games

SA @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
106–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA20253031106
PHI19293627111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home PHI
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 37 26 9 4
Stephon Castle 13 17 3 1
Devin Vassell S 32 15 5 2
Julian Champagnie 29 15 8 1
Jeremy Sochan S 32 15 8 3
Chris Paul S 35 12 4 8
Keldon Johnson 22 4 1 2
Tre Jones 14 2 0 3
Charles Bassey 7 0 3 0
Harrison Barnes S 20 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 41 32 10 8
Paul George S 37 19 9 4
Guerschon Yabusele 32 17 4 2
Caleb Martin 27 12 5 0
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 36 10 6 1
Joel Embiid S 14 9 3 1
Kyle Lowry 21 6 1 4
KJ Martin S 20 4 6 1
Andre Drummond 7 2 3 1
Reggie Jackson 6 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
12%
3 Jeremy Sochan SA
10%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
6 Paul George PHI
10%
7 Devin Vassell SA
8%
8 Andre Drummond PHI
7%
9 Chris Paul SA
7%
10 KJ Martin PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
29%
Jumper
13%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 30.3 10.1 5.7
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.1 4.2 6.7
3 Joel Embiid PHI 25.2 8.1 5.4
4 Paul George PHI 18.1 5.7 5.6
5 Jared McCain PHI 16.3 3.3 3.0
6 Devin Vassell SA 15.5 3.2 2.6
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 14.9 6.7 2.2
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 14.1 8.2 3.0
9 Julian Champagnie SA 13.3 4.7 1.5
10 Stephon Castle SA 13.3 3.1 4.6
11 Keldon Johnson SA 11.9 4.6 1.9
12 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 10.8 4.9 2.2
13 KJ Martin PHI 10.4 4.0 1.3
14 Harrison Barnes SA 10.3 2.8 1.6
15 Chris Paul SA 9.5 4.5 7.9
16 Ricky Council IV PHI 8.5 3.5 1.2
17 Caleb Martin PHI 7.4 3.5 1.9
18 Andre Drummond PHI 6.3 7.0 1.1
19 Charles Bassey SA 5.8 5.6 0.7
20 Tre Jones SA 5.4 2.4 3.0
21 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.4 2.7 0.7
22 Blake Wesley SA 4.0 1.5 1.8
23 Reggie Jackson PHI 3.8 1.0 1.8
24 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 3.8 1.5 1.2
25 Kyle Lowry PHI 3.6 1.9 1.5
26 Malaki Branham SA 3.5 1.3 1.4
27 Zach Collins SA 3.2 2.2 0.8
28 Adem Bona PHI 3.2 2.9 0.6
29 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.7 1.2 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.