NBA games

BOS @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
104–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS32262125104
ORL21223629108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home ORL
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 37 35 9 4
Derrick White S 40 17 4 4
Kristaps Porzingis S 37 17 4 0
Jrue Holiday S 33 16 8 0
Al Horford S 35 8 6 2
Payton Pritchard 21 7 3 1
Luke Kornet 20 4 5 0
Sam Hauser 16 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tristan da Silva S 36 18 3 0
Trevelin Queen S 34 17 1 3
Jalen Suggs S 29 16 6 5
Wendell Carter Jr. 27 11 7 4
Cole Anthony 17 10 2 5
Anthony Black 23 9 4 3
Goga Bitadze S 21 8 9 3
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 34 8 5 2
Jonathan Isaac 14 7 5 1
Jett Howard 5 4 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Layup (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
4 Goga Bitadze ORL
10%
5 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
7 Anthony Black ORL
8%
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
8%
9 Derrick White BOS
8%
10 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
44%
Jumper
14%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 27.2 10.0 5.5
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.3 4.7 5.4
3 Jalen Suggs ORL 19.2 4.5 5.0
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 18.4 6.7 1.9
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 15.4 5.4 3.6
6 Derrick White BOS 14.5 4.8 5.0
7 Goga Bitadze ORL 12.4 10.4 2.1
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 11.6 4.1 3.5
9 Anthony Black ORL 10.2 3.4 2.6
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.1 2.5 1.9
11 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.6 3.0 1.4
12 Al Horford BOS 9.3 4.8 1.7
13 Cole Anthony ORL 8.6 2.5 3.1
14 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.2 6.8 2.1
15 Sam Hauser BOS 7.5 2.9 1.0
16 Luke Kornet BOS 5.8 5.7 1.5
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.7 4.6 0.6
18 Neemias Queta BOS 4.1 4.0 0.7
19 Jett Howard ORL 4.1 1.4 0.7
20 Trevelin Queen ORL 3.4 1.4 0.7
21 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.8 1.5 0.5
22 Caleb Houstan ORL 2.7 0.9 0.6
23 JD Davison BOS 2.6 0.8 0.9
24 Jaden Springer BOS 2.5 1.2 0.6
25 Cory Joseph ORL 2.5 1.4 0.9
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.2 1.7 0.4
27 Baylor Scheierman BOS 1.5 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.