NBA games

HOU @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
114–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU31313022114
CHA15163535101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home CHA
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jabari Smith Jr. S 35 21 11 2
Fred VanVleet S 29 20 5 6
Amen Thompson S 38 19 11 3
Cam Whitmore 27 17 8 0
Alperen Sengun S 27 16 8 4
Jalen Green S 24 6 2 1
Jae'Sean Tate 15 6 1 2
Aaron Holiday 3 4 0 0
Reed Sheppard 19 3 4 2
Steven Adams 12 2 8 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 29 24 8 3
LaMelo Ball S 30 23 5 8
Moussa Diabate 16 14 5 0
Mark Williams S 19 12 9 3
Cody Martin S 32 6 5 4
Nick Richards 13 6 4 0
Nick Smith Jr. 3 4 0 0
DaQuan Jeffries 19 4 1 0
Vasilije Micic 14 3 0 2
Josh Green S 31 3 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes 13-foot step back jumpshot (Amen Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
15%
2 Jalen Green HOU
14%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
4 Nick Richards CHA
9%
5 Mark Williams CHA
9%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
8 Vasilije Micic CHA
8%
9 Josh Green CHA
7%
10 Cody Martin CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
34%
Layup
39%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 29.4 5.8 8.4
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.2 10.5 6.5
3 Jalen Green HOU 21.6 4.9 3.1
4 Miles Bridges CHA 18.3 6.5 3.5
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.3 4.5 5.7
6 Amen Thompson HOU 13.5 7.3 2.2
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.6 6.5 1.7
8 Nick Richards CHA 11.2 8.0 1.5
9 Vasilije Micic CHA 11.2 3.0 5.3
10 Cody Martin CHA 10.1 4.5 2.4
11 Josh Green CHA 9.6 2.9 1.7
12 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 7.3 3.0 1.1
13 Mark Williams CHA 7.1 5.7 0.9
14 Isaiah Wong CHA 6.8 2.5 2.0
15 Tidjane Salaun CHA 6.5 4.4 1.4
16 Cam Whitmore HOU 5.1 1.8 0.7
17 Moussa Diabate CHA 4.7 5.8 0.9
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.0 1.4 1.0
19 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.0 1.7 0.7
20 Seth Curry CHA 3.7 1.5 0.6
21 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.6 2.3 0.7
22 Nate Williams HOU 3.5 1.2 0.6
23 Jock Landale HOU 3.3 3.1 1.0
24 N'Faly Dante HOU 3.0 2.3 0.5
25 Steven Adams HOU 2.9 3.1 0.8
26 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 2.3 0.7 0.6
27 Jeff Green HOU 2.2 0.9 0.4
28 Jack McVeigh HOU 2.0 0.8 0.3
29 Taj Gibson CHA 1.7 2.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.