DEN @ NO
NBA
Smoothie King Center
·Final
132–129
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q5 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 28 | 31 | 22 | 38 | 13 | 132 |
| NO | 29 | 38 | 26 | 26 | 10 | 129 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN
away
home
NO
53%
47%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic S | 43 | 27 | 13 | 10 |
| Jamal Murray S | 41 | 27 | 8 | 4 |
| Russell Westbrook | 36 | 21 | 5 | 5 |
| Aaron Gordon S | 35 | 17 | 8 | 3 |
| Julian Strawther | 20 | 13 | 1 | 1 |
| Christian Braun S | 39 | 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Michael Porter Jr. S | 23 | 8 | 4 | 1 |
| Peyton Watson | 18 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 10 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Jamal Murray ·
Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:55 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
CJ McCollum
NO
13%
2
Jamal Murray
DEN
10%
3
Michael Porter Jr.
DEN
10%
4
Dejounte Murray
NO
10%
5
Yves Missi
NO
10%
6
Nikola Jokic
DEN
9%
7
Herbert Jones
NO
8%
8
Aaron Gordon
DEN
8%
9
Trey Murphy III
NO
8%
10
Christian Braun
DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
32%
Layup
17%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nikola Jokic | DEN | 30.4 | 12.0 | 9.4 |
| 2 | CJ McCollum | NO | 22.6 | 4.4 | 4.6 |
| 3 | Jamal Murray | DEN | 21.1 | 4.2 | 7.1 |
| 4 | Trey Murphy III | NO | 20.5 | 4.4 | 3.1 |
| 5 | Michael Porter Jr. | DEN | 19.6 | 7.0 | 3.4 |
| 6 | Dejounte Murray | NO | 19.5 | 6.8 | 8.6 |
| 7 | Aaron Gordon | DEN | 14.7 | 5.6 | 3.5 |
| 8 | Russell Westbrook | DEN | 14.6 | 4.4 | 6.6 |
| 9 | Herbert Jones | NO | 14.2 | 4.1 | 3.1 |
| 10 | Christian Braun | DEN | 14.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 |
| 11 | Yves Missi | NO | 13.0 | 10.7 | 1.3 |
| 12 | Jose Alvarado | NO | 12.8 | 2.8 | 4.9 |
| 13 | Brandon Boston | NO | 12.4 | 3.2 | 2.0 |
| 14 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 10.6 | 3.0 | 1.6 |
| 15 | Julian Strawther | DEN | 9.5 | 2.5 | 1.7 |
| 16 | Peyton Watson | DEN | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| 17 | Javonte Green | NO | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 |
| 18 | Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | NO | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 |
| 19 | Antonio Reeves | NO | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 20 | Hunter Tyson | DEN | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 21 | Daniel Theis | NO | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 22 | Dario Saric | DEN | 3.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 23 | DeAndre Jordan | DEN | 3.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 |
| 24 | Jalen Pickett | DEN | 2.5 | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| 25 | Zeke Nnaji | DEN | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 26 | Spencer Jones | DEN | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 27 | PJ Hall | DEN | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.