NBA games

IND @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
122–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND21313535122
SAC2329261795

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home SAC
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 28 19 10 3
Myles Turner S 25 15 6 1
Tyrese Haliburton S 31 14 5 8
Ben Sheppard 17 14 1 0
Andrew Nembhard S 19 12 1 4
T.J. McConnell 23 12 7 10
Obi Toppin 21 11 3 2
Jarace Walker 19 9 2 2
Thomas Bryant 14 8 4 1
Bennedict Mathurin S 30 4 8 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 35 23 5 7
Domantas Sabonis S 31 17 21 4
Malik Monk S 32 14 4 1
Keegan Murray S 28 10 4 2
Trey Lyles 19 8 3 1
Kevin Huerter 23 8 5 2
Doug McDermott 18 3 1 0
Keon Ellis 5 3 0 0
Jordan McLaughlin 5 3 0 0
Colby Jones 5 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:47 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
13%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
3 Pascal Siakam IND
11%
4 Bennedict Mathurin IND
11%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
7 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
9 Myles Turner IND
8%
10 Malik Monk SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
48%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.8 5.1 7.0
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 24.1 12.9 6.5
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.3 4.1 4.3
4 Tyrese Haliburton IND 21.6 4.0 8.4
5 Pascal Siakam IND 20.3 7.7 3.2
6 Malik Monk SAC 20.1 4.3 7.4
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.9 5.1 2.1
8 T.J. McConnell IND 13.6 3.4 4.6
9 Myles Turner IND 13.5 6.7 2.1
10 Obi Toppin IND 12.1 5.7 2.0
11 Keegan Murray SAC 11.0 6.2 1.2
12 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.4 2.9 3.8
13 Kevin Huerter SAC 8.7 3.0 1.7
14 Aaron Nesmith IND 7.9 3.2 1.2
15 Trey Lyles SAC 7.9 4.7 1.4
16 Ben Sheppard IND 6.7 2.9 1.4
17 Keon Ellis SAC 6.2 3.1 1.5
18 Jarace Walker IND 6.1 3.2 1.5
19 Isaac Jones SAC 5.4 2.8 0.7
20 Doug McDermott SAC 4.3 1.1 0.7
21 Thomas Bryant IND 3.8 3.5 0.5
22 Jae Crowder SAC 3.5 2.2 0.6
23 Orlando Robinson SAC 3.1 1.6 0.9
24 Johnny Furphy IND 2.9 1.5 0.4
25 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 2.9 1.2 0.9
26 Alex Len SAC 2.6 2.0 0.9
27 Colby Jones SAC 2.5 1.8 0.6
28 James Johnson IND 2.4 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.