NBA games

HOU @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
114–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU24273330114
TOR35222627110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home TOR
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 37 27 6 2
Jalen Green S 34 22 7 2
Alperen Sengun S 33 17 10 5
Jabari Smith Jr. S 37 15 9 0
Cam Whitmore 14 11 4 1
Amen Thompson 23 10 5 2
Jae'Sean Tate 15 7 2 1
Reed Sheppard 6 3 2 0
Fred VanVleet S 38 2 8 5
Jock Landale 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ja'Kobe Walter S 28 27 2 3
Chris Boucher 19 15 1 4
Ochai Agbaji S 32 15 5 1
Gradey Dick S 31 14 2 6
Jamison Battle 17 11 4 0
Jamal Shead 33 11 6 10
Kelly Olynyk 25 8 9 4
Scottie Barnes S 39 6 10 4
Jonathan Mogbo S 16 3 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jabari Smith Jr. · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jabari Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
4 Jalen Green HOU
9%
5 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
7 Bruno Fernando TOR
8%
8 Gradey Dick TOR
7%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
10 Jonathan Mogbo TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
39%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 RJ Barrett TOR 25.0 7.1 6.0
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.9 10.4 6.4
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.6 8.5 7.5
4 Jalen Green HOU 21.3 4.4 3.0
5 Gradey Dick TOR 16.8 4.1 2.2
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.2 4.1 5.8
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 14.8 4.5 2.1
8 Amen Thompson HOU 14.3 7.7 2.2
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.3 6.5 1.8
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR 11.3 3.8 1.7
11 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 9.5 3.4 1.9
12 Chris Boucher TOR 7.6 4.2 0.8
13 Kelly Olynyk TOR 6.7 3.8 1.9
14 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 6.6 4.5 2.2
15 Davion Mitchell TOR 5.9 1.6 3.1
16 Jamison Battle TOR 5.8 1.6 1.1
17 Jamal Shead TOR 5.6 1.4 2.4
18 Cam Whitmore HOU 4.8 1.8 0.7
19 Reed Sheppard HOU 4.5 1.7 0.9
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.5 1.6 1.0
21 A.J. Lawson TOR 4.4 1.8 0.9
22 Steven Adams HOU 3.4 3.3 0.8
23 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 3.3 2.2 0.7
24 Jock Landale HOU 3.3 3.3 0.9
25 Bruno Fernando TOR 2.7 2.4 0.9
26 Ulrich Chomche TOR 2.5 1.7 0.7
27 Jeff Green HOU 2.4 0.9 0.3
28 Jack McVeigh HOU 2.2 0.9 0.3
29 Garrett Temple TOR 1.5 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.