NBA games

DET @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
133–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET41233930133
PHX26333531125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home PHX
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 36 28 1 13
Jaden Ivey S 30 20 8 8
Malik Beasley 27 18 2 0
Jalen Duren S 34 17 11 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 29 16 1 2
Simone Fontecchio 15 10 1 0
Tobias Harris S 29 10 3 2
Paul Reed 14 6 3 2
Ronald Holland II 14 4 3 1
Ausar Thompson 14 4 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 39 43 5 6
Bradley Beal S 39 26 6 5
Tyus Jones S 33 19 0 2
Royce O'Neale S 34 11 3 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 25 10 7 6
Mason Plumlee 22 5 9 4
Ryan Dunn 14 5 2 1
Monte Morris 15 4 0 3
Grayson Allen 20 2 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bradley Beal · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Bradley Beal makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Tyus Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
14%
2 Bradley Beal PHX
11%
3 Tobias Harris DET
11%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
5 Jaden Ivey DET
10%
6 Jalen Duren DET
10%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
8 Tyus Jones PHX
8%
9 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
47%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 26.5 6.7 5.0
2 Cade Cunningham DET 25.9 7.3 11.2
3 Bradley Beal PHX 21.0 4.9 3.3
4 Jaden Ivey DET 16.7 3.6 4.2
5 Malik Beasley DET 15.7 3.4 2.8
6 Tyus Jones PHX 15.6 2.7 6.6
7 Tobias Harris DET 14.0 5.7 2.1
8 Royce O'Neale PHX 13.2 5.3 2.5
9 Grayson Allen PHX 12.1 4.0 2.8
10 Jalen Duren DET 10.2 7.4 1.9
11 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 9.7 2.9 1.5
12 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 9.4 9.1 1.8
13 Marcus Sasser DET 8.4 1.6 2.6
14 Ausar Thompson DET 7.6 3.5 2.3
15 Ronald Holland II DET 7.5 2.9 1.3
16 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.6 2.5 1.2
17 Monte Morris PHX 5.7 1.7 1.8
18 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.4 2.5 1.1
19 Paul Reed DET 5.0 2.9 0.9
20 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.4 5.9 1.1
21 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.4 3.3 1.1
22 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 4.2 2.8 1.0
23 Josh Okogie PHX 3.6 1.9 0.6
24 Damion Lee PHX 3.1 0.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.