NBA games

POR @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
94–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2024252594
SA25352727114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home SA
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 31 25 3 0
Anfernee Simons S 33 18 4 6
Deandre Ayton S 29 14 8 2
Scoot Henderson 24 12 4 1
Deni Avdija 27 7 6 4
Donovan Clingan 13 7 6 1
Jerami Grant S 30 5 0 2
Jabari Walker 3 3 1 0
Duop Reath 3 3 0 1
Toumani Camara S 29 0 7 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 30 30 7 3
Charles Bassey 18 16 12 0
Devin Vassell S 23 11 4 0
Keldon Johnson 21 11 2 1
Jeremy Sochan S 24 10 7 5
Harrison Barnes S 22 9 3 1
Stephon Castle 20 8 4 5
Julian Champagnie 24 7 3 0
Chris Paul S 26 6 4 9
Tre Jones 18 4 3 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes driving layup (Harrison Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
13%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
4 Jeremy Sochan SA
12%
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
6 Devin Vassell SA
10%
7 Jerami Grant POR
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SA
8%
9 Chris Paul SA
8%
10 Toumani Camara POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
40%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
22%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.1 10.4 5.9
2 Anfernee Simons POR 21.4 3.5 6.5
3 Deni Avdija POR 17.8 5.0 4.0
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 17.7 4.4 3.5
5 Devin Vassell SA 16.9 3.2 3.3
6 Jerami Grant POR 16.0 4.2 3.1
7 Deandre Ayton POR 15.7 9.6 1.9
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 15.5 8.4 3.2
9 Julian Champagnie SA 15.0 4.7 1.7
10 Stephon Castle SA 15.0 3.2 4.6
11 Keldon Johnson SA 13.5 4.9 2.3
12 Toumani Camara POR 11.2 5.3 2.0
13 Scoot Henderson POR 11.1 3.0 5.7
14 Harrison Barnes SA 10.9 3.1 2.0
15 Chris Paul SA 9.9 4.3 7.9
16 Dalano Banton POR 9.5 2.8 3.0
17 Donovan Clingan POR 8.5 8.2 1.2
18 Robert Williams III POR 8.0 5.9 1.3
19 Charles Bassey SA 6.0 5.4 0.8
20 Tre Jones SA 5.6 2.4 3.3
21 Kris Murray POR 4.1 1.6 0.5
22 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.8 2.5 0.6
23 Zach Collins SA 3.8 2.3 0.9
24 Blake Wesley SA 3.6 1.2 1.6
25 Jabari Walker POR 3.4 3.2 0.8
26 Malaki Branham SA 2.9 1.1 1.1
27 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.7 1.0 0.6
28 Rayan Rupert POR 2.6 1.1 0.6
29 Duop Reath POR 2.5 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.