NBA games

LAC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
97–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC2218263197
DAL23312039113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DAL
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 42 28 5 2
James Harden S 37 19 8 3
Kevin Porter Jr. 27 19 2 3
Ivica Zubac S 34 13 15 3
Kris Dunn S 34 9 3 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 17 4 4 1
Nicolas Batum 15 3 0 2
Mo Bamba 10 2 2 0
Kai Jones 1 0 0 0
Amir Coffey 22 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Quentin Grimes 25 20 7 1
Klay Thompson S 24 16 1 1
Spencer Dinwiddie S 29 15 3 6
Kyrie Irving S 38 15 3 6
Daniel Gafford 19 13 6 2
Naji Marshall 21 12 3 2
Dereck Lively II S 28 11 11 5
P.J. Washington S 37 10 7 1
Maxi Kleber 17 1 2 1
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
P.J. Washington · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"P.J. Washington makes 23-foot three point shot (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell LAC
12%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
5 James Harden LAC
9%
6 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
8%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
9 Klay Thompson DAL
8%
10 Quentin Grimes DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
35%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
23%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 26.8 4.5 8.7
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 23.2 4.8 5.9
3 Norman Powell LAC 21.6 3.6 3.4
4 P.J. Washington DAL 16.4 7.5 3.4
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.2 11.4 2.6
6 Naji Marshall DAL 15.6 3.6 2.2
7 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 14.0 2.9 4.8
8 Klay Thompson DAL 13.6 4.0 2.1
9 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 13.0 4.8 3.9
10 Quentin Grimes DAL 12.5 4.1 2.2
11 Amir Coffey LAC 11.5 3.0 1.7
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.3 8.7 2.5
13 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.3 6.5 1.6
14 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.9 3.1 1.5
15 Jordan Miller LAC 7.2 2.6 1.6
16 Bones Hyland LAC 7.1 1.4 1.3
17 Kris Dunn LAC 6.6 3.2 2.3
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.4 2.8 1.6
19 Mo Bamba LAC 4.9 4.1 1.0
20 Jazian Gortman DAL 3.7 1.1 0.7
21 Maxi Kleber DAL 3.6 3.1 0.8
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.3 2.3 0.8
23 Kai Jones LAC 2.9 2.1 0.7
24 Markieff Morris DAL 2.3 1.3 0.6
25 Dwight Powell DAL 2.2 1.3 0.6
26 Kessler Edwards DAL 2.2 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.