NBA games

NY @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
104–93
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY28173326104
NO2821261893

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home NO
82% 18%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 40 39 1 6
Mikal Bridges S 45 18 0 2
OG Anunoby S 37 16 5 3
Josh Hart S 42 14 8 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 27 11 10 4
Miles McBride 16 2 2 1
Precious Achiuwa 12 2 7 1
Cameron Payne 8 2 1 1
Jericho Sims 13 0 8 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 38 26 6 2
Dejounte Murray S 33 14 9 8
CJ McCollum S 32 13 5 4
Jordan Hawkins 21 9 2 1
Yves Missi S 30 9 8 1
Brandon Boston 17 7 2 1
Javonte Green 18 6 5 1
Herbert Jones S 33 5 4 4
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 18 4 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Brunson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jalen Brunson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 CJ McCollum NO
13%
2 Dejounte Murray NO
9%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
4 Yves Missi NO
9%
5 Jalen Brunson NY
8%
6 Josh Hart NY
8%
7 Herbert Jones NO
8%
8 Trey Murphy III NO
8%
9 Mikal Bridges NY
7%
10 Precious Achiuwa NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
18%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 26.0 3.8 7.8
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.9 13.9 5.2
3 CJ McCollum NO 22.0 4.2 4.2
4 Mikal Bridges NY 21.7 3.9 3.7
5 Trey Murphy III NO 19.4 4.3 3.0
6 Dejounte Murray NO 18.8 6.1 6.6
7 Josh Hart NY 15.5 7.0 5.1
8 OG Anunoby NY 14.3 5.1 2.3
9 Herbert Jones NO 12.7 3.9 2.6
10 Jose Alvarado NO 12.0 2.7 4.5
11 Yves Missi NO 11.9 10.4 1.2
12 Jordan Hawkins NO 11.7 3.2 1.6
13 Brandon Boston NO 11.1 3.2 2.0
14 Miles McBride NY 10.9 3.2 3.5
15 Precious Achiuwa NY 7.6 7.0 1.6
16 Cameron Payne NY 7.5 2.5 2.8
17 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 6.3 4.9 1.3
18 Javonte Green NO 6.3 3.3 1.1
19 Antonio Reeves NO 5.0 1.5 0.8
20 Tyler Kolek NY 3.6 1.6 1.0
21 Jericho Sims NY 3.4 3.5 0.7
22 Trey Jemison III NO 3.4 2.5 0.7
23 Matt Ryan NY 3.2 1.3 0.7
24 Jacob Toppin NY 1.7 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.