NBA games

GS @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
113–103
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS26242934113
MIN15223828103

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home MIN
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 34 31 3 10
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 26 15 9 2
Brandin Podziemski 20 12 7 1
Buddy Hield 21 11 3 2
Jonathan Kuminga 23 11 4 2
Dennis Schroder S 28 9 2 3
Andrew Wiggins S 29 9 2 2
Gary Payton II 21 7 5 4
Kevon Looney 22 5 8 2
Kyle Anderson S 17 3 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 39 19 7 5
Donte DiVincenzo 26 19 4 4
Rudy Gobert S 37 18 12 2
Naz Reid 25 16 4 2
Julius Randle S 32 16 7 6
Jaden McDaniels S 35 10 7 2
Mike Conley S 25 3 2 5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 19 2 2 1
Josh Minott 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trayce Jackson-Davis · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Trayce Jackson-Davis makes 4-foot two point shot (Andrew Wiggins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
13%
2 Dennis Schroder GS
13%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
11%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
5 Andrew Wiggins GS
10%
6 Kevon Looney GS
9%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
8 Mike Conley MIN
8%
9 Stephen Curry GS
8%
10 Draymond Green GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
33%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 24.2 5.8 4.9
2 Stephen Curry GS 20.9 4.9 6.3
3 Julius Randle MIN 20.8 6.8 4.1
4 Dennis Schroder GS 19.8 3.7 7.1
5 Andrew Wiggins GS 18.6 4.2 2.8
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 17.7 5.0 2.4
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 12.4 3.4 2.4
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.0 10.2 2.0
9 Mike Conley MIN 10.6 3.1 4.2
10 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.4 4.4 3.5
11 Draymond Green GS 10.4 6.1 4.9
12 Buddy Hield GS 10.3 3.1 1.3
13 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.3 4.9 2.0
14 Naz Reid MIN 10.2 5.6 1.7
15 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 8.6 3.3 3.8
16 Lindy Waters III GS 6.1 3.1 1.4
17 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.4 4.1 1.4
18 Kevon Looney GS 5.4 6.4 1.6
19 Kyle Anderson GS 5.1 2.5 1.6
20 Rob Dillingham MIN 5.0 1.5 1.8
21 Gary Payton II GS 4.9 4.0 1.1
22 Josh Minott MIN 4.0 1.9 0.8
23 Moses Moody GS 3.5 1.2 0.6
24 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 3.3 1.6 1.1
25 Gui Santos GS 2.2 1.3 0.5
26 PJ Dozier MIN 2.0 0.9 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.