NBA games

WSH @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
101112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH36142229101
MIL36272326112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home MIL
11% 89%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 36 26 5 3
Bilal Coulibaly S 35 20 12 5
Corey Kispert 26 16 2 1
Alex Sarr S 33 11 5 3
Bub Carrington 32 7 2 1
Kyshawn George 23 7 4 1
Jonas Valanciunas 15 6 6 3
Malcolm Brogdon S 24 5 5 3
Justin Champagnie S 17 3 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bobby Portis S 32 34 10 8
Khris Middleton S 24 18 6 8
Gary Trent Jr. 31 15 7 2
Ryan Rollins S 31 14 3 2
Brook Lopez S 31 14 1 1
AJ Green 31 6 4 6
Andre Jackson Jr. S 18 5 7 5
Taurean Prince 24 4 3 2
Delon Wright 17 2 3 1
MarJon Beauchamp 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bobby Portis · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Bobby Portis makes 12-foot two point shot (Ryan Rollins assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jordan Poole WSH
13%
2 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
13%
3 Bub Carrington WSH
12%
4 Alex Sarr WSH
12%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
11%
6 Justin Champagnie WSH
10%
7 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
10%
8 AJ Green MIL
10%
9 Taurean Prince MIL
9%
10 Corey Kispert WSH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
39%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
25%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jordan Poole WSH 21.8 3.3 6.0
2 Malcolm Brogdon WSH 15.5 4.2 2.9
3 Alex Sarr WSH 13.1 7.4 1.9
4 Bobby Portis MIL 12.8 7.4 2.5
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.0 4.8 4.2
6 Corey Kispert WSH 11.0 3.9 1.6
7 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 10.9 7.0 2.2
8 Brook Lopez MIL 10.8 4.8 1.6
9 Justin Champagnie WSH 10.1 5.7 1.4
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.9 2.6 1.5
11 Khris Middleton MIL 9.4 3.3 5.2
12 Bub Carrington WSH 9.2 4.6 3.0
13 AJ Green MIL 9.0 2.4 1.9
14 Taurean Prince MIL 7.3 2.9 1.8
15 Kyshawn George WSH 6.3 3.6 2.0
16 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 6.1 3.5 1.5
17 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.9 2.7 1.5
18 Jared Butler WSH 5.6 1.2 2.3
19 Delon Wright MIL 5.1 2.8 1.5
20 Ryan Rollins MIL 4.6 1.9 1.3
21 Marvin Bagley III WSH 3.7 2.5 0.4
22 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.7 1.9 0.8
23 Liam Robbins MIL 3.7 2.5 0.9
24 Stanley Umude MIL 3.2 1.6 0.8
25 Johnny Davis WSH 3.0 1.6 0.5
26 Anthony Gill WSH 2.5 1.4 0.3
27 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.5 2.0 0.2
28 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.7 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.