NBA games

BOS @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
123–98
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS28333230123
CHI2826232198

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home CHI
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 36 43 15 10
Kristaps Porzingis S 30 22 7 2
Jaylen Brown S 33 19 5 8
Derrick White S 26 8 4 1
Al Horford 25 8 7 0
Jrue Holiday S 29 7 6 1
Payton Pritchard 32 6 4 2
Luke Kornet 19 4 8 3
Jaden Springer 3 3 1 0
Jordan Walsh 3 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 32 19 10 2
Patrick Williams S 22 14 5 5
Coby White S 25 14 0 1
Zach LaVine S 30 14 4 4
Matas Buzelis 20 9 1 2
Julian Phillips 17 7 4 2
Ayo Dosunmu S 32 7 4 6
Jevon Carter 4 4 1 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 14 3 3 1
Dalen Terry 12 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick White · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Derrick White makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
2 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
12%
3 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
11%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
9%
6 Zach LaVine CHI
9%
7 Coby White CHI
9%
8 Patrick Williams CHI
9%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
10 Derrick White BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
52%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.8 10.0 5.2
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.3 4.7 5.2
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 22.6 9.9 3.9
4 Zach LaVine CHI 22.2 4.1 4.5
5 Payton Pritchard BOS 19.2 5.4 4.1
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 18.4 7.2 1.9
7 Derrick White BOS 16.6 5.6 5.8
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 16.6 4.4 5.2
9 Coby White CHI 16.1 4.0 4.6
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.7 4.2 3.8
11 Patrick Williams CHI 11.3 4.0 2.4
12 Al Horford BOS 9.8 4.9 2.1
13 Sam Hauser BOS 8.6 3.2 1.1
14 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 8.6 2.4 1.3
15 Jalen Smith CHI 7.7 6.1 0.9
16 Matas Buzelis CHI 6.9 3.9 1.0
17 Lonzo Ball CHI 6.0 3.4 3.3
18 Julian Phillips CHI 5.8 2.6 0.8
19 Luke Kornet BOS 4.9 5.5 1.3
20 Neemias Queta BOS 4.9 4.5 0.8
21 Dalen Terry CHI 3.5 0.9 0.7
22 Jaden Springer BOS 3.1 1.4 0.9
23 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.0 1.2 0.4
24 Jevon Carter CHI 1.8 0.8 0.4
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.7 1.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.