NBA games

MEM @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
128–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM43302728128
ATL27222736112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home ATL
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 27 23 5 8
Scotty Pippen Jr. S 33 22 5 9
Jake LaRavia 22 16 4 4
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 25 13 5 1
Jaylen Wells S 26 13 3 2
Santi Aldama 21 10 6 4
Zach Edey S 27 10 6 0
Marcus Smart 9 9 0 2
Brandon Clarke 18 8 3 1
Luke Kennard 18 4 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Andre Hunter 24 26 2 0
Dyson Daniels S 29 15 3 6
Jalen Johnson S 33 13 11 8
Zaccharie Risacher S 22 10 2 1
Clint Capela S 19 8 8 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 25 7 0 3
Vit Krejci S 20 7 0 3
Larry Nance Jr. 24 7 10 4
Garrison Mathews 6 6 1 0
David Roddy 9 5 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach Edey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Zach Edey makes layup (Jaylen Wells assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Johnson ATL
15%
2 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
15%
3 Clint Capela ATL
14%
4 Desmond Bane MEM
12%
5 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
11%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
11%
7 Jaylen Wells MEM
10%
8 Zach Edey MEM
10%
9 Brandon Clarke MEM
0%
10 Santi Aldama MEM
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
35%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.4 10.3 5.7
2 De'Andre Hunter ATL 21.2 4.2 1.9
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 20.7 6.3 2.4
4 Santi Aldama MEM 15.1 6.5 2.4
5 Desmond Bane MEM 14.6 5.0 6.0
6 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 13.1 3.4 2.6
7 Zach Edey MEM 12.8 8.6 1.8
8 Dyson Daniels ATL 12.5 5.9 3.7
9 Marcus Smart MEM 10.5 2.6 4.2
10 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.2 3.4 1.7
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.3 3.2 1.0
12 Brandon Clarke MEM 9.2 6.8 1.7
13 Jake LaRavia MEM 9.2 3.4 2.4
14 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 8.1 3.6 1.2
15 Clint Capela ATL 7.9 10.0 1.3
16 Luke Kennard MEM 7.8 2.4 1.9
17 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 7.5 2.8 4.0
18 Keaton Wallace ATL 6.3 2.2 2.1
19 Cam Spencer MEM 5.6 2.0 1.7
20 John Konchar MEM 3.6 2.6 1.1
21 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.6 0.8 0.9
22 Vit Krejci ATL 2.9 2.3 1.3
23 David Roddy ATL 2.4 1.1 0.8
24 Dominick Barlow ATL 2.4 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.