NBA games

MIA @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
114–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA4036308114
ORL28282837121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home ORL
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bam Adebayo S 34 24 6 0
Terry Rozier 33 23 5 2
Tyler Herro S 38 22 6 5
Dru Smith S 26 13 4 0
Duncan Robinson S 27 10 4 3
Kel'el Ware 14 8 7 0
Pelle Larsson 24 5 2 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 18 5 2 4
Nikola Jovic S 19 4 1 0
Haywood Highsmith 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cole Anthony 28 35 8 9
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 36 24 2 2
Goga Bitadze S 31 18 13 1
Anthony Black S 18 10 1 2
Jett Howard 13 9 4 1
Tristan da Silva S 28 8 2 3
Trevelin Queen 18 7 1 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 13 5 1 1
Cory Joseph 24 5 4 1
Moritz Wagner 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes driving layup (Tristan da Silva assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
14%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
3 Goga Bitadze ORL
11%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
10%
6 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
10%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
10%
8 Tristan da Silva ORL
8%
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
10 Duncan Robinson MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
24%
Layup
38%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 23.8 5.7 4.9
2 Jalen Suggs ORL 19.6 4.5 5.4
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 18.6 5.9 4.7
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 18.0 10.8 6.0
5 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.8 6.0 2.1
6 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.3 2.6 2.7
7 Goga Bitadze ORL 11.9 9.6 2.4
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.4 2.2 2.0
9 Terry Rozier MIA 10.0 3.6 2.4
10 Anthony Black ORL 9.7 3.4 2.8
11 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.2 3.8 1.8
12 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.1 2.9 1.4
13 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 8.4 7.0 2.3
14 Dru Smith MIA 8.1 3.0 1.9
15 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.9 3.6 1.4
16 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.5 2.8 1.0
17 Josh Christopher MIA 7.5 2.1 3.0
18 Cole Anthony ORL 6.9 2.4 2.6
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.6 4.5 0.7
20 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.1 1.8 0.9
21 Jett Howard ORL 3.9 1.3 0.8
22 Alec Burks MIA 3.6 1.5 0.9
23 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.7 1.0 0.3
24 Cory Joseph ORL 2.3 1.2 0.8
25 Caleb Houstan ORL 1.8 0.5 0.4
26 Kel'el Ware MIA 1.7 1.1 0.2
27 Trevelin Queen ORL 1.6 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.