NBA games

LAL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
103–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL31252522103
SAC2627242299

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home SAC
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 34 32 7 6
D'Angelo Russell 30 20 4 5
Austin Reaves S 36 16 4 5
Anthony Davis S 37 10 15 5
Rui Hachimura S 38 9 11 1
Gabe Vincent 16 6 0 0
Cam Reddish 22 5 4 0
Max Christie S 18 5 3 0
Dalton Knecht 5 0 0 1
Christian Koloko 3 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 38 31 5 7
Domantas Sabonis S 37 19 19 5
DeMar DeRozan S 37 12 4 3
Keegan Murray S 27 10 4 0
Kevin Huerter 23 9 2 0
Malik Monk S 36 7 4 8
Keon Ellis 14 5 2 1
Trey Lyles 17 3 3 0
Isaac Jones 11 3 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"LeBron James makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 LeBron James LAL
15%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
14%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
4 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
7 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
9 Max Christie LAL
7%
10 Malik Monk SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
31%
Jumper
28%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC 24.5 12.6 6.5
2 Anthony Davis LAL 24.4 12.2 4.3
3 De'Aaron Fox SAC 24.2 5.5 7.1
4 LeBron James LAL 23.9 7.7 8.9
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC 22.4 4.1 4.5
6 Malik Monk SAC 21.2 4.6 7.4
7 Austin Reaves LAL 17.4 3.5 4.8
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL 15.7 4.0 4.2
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.6 5.8 2.1
10 Keegan Murray SAC 11.5 6.9 1.3
11 Max Christie LAL 9.8 3.7 1.7
12 Dalton Knecht LAL 9.6 4.7 1.4
13 Kevin Huerter SAC 8.7 3.1 1.6
14 Gabe Vincent LAL 6.7 2.4 1.5
15 Keon Ellis SAC 6.3 3.2 1.5
16 Trey Lyles SAC 5.9 3.6 1.1
17 Isaac Jones SAC 5.3 2.9 0.6
18 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 4.2 1.6 2.6
19 Doug McDermott SAC 4.2 1.2 0.6
20 Cam Reddish LAL 4.0 1.7 1.0
21 Jae Crowder SAC 3.4 2.2 0.6
22 Orlando Robinson SAC 3.1 1.7 0.9
23 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 2.9 1.3 0.9
24 Christian Koloko LAL 2.7 2.7 0.5
25 Alex Len SAC 2.7 2.1 0.9
26 Colby Jones SAC 2.6 1.9 0.6
27 Armel Traore LAL 1.7 2.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.