NBA games

OKC @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
104–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC30203123104
MIA2522232797

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home MIA
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Williams S 36 33 6 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 25 7 4
Luguentz Dort S 32 14 1 0
Isaiah Hartenstein S 34 13 18 2
Kenrich Williams 10 5 3 4
Alex Caruso 25 4 3 5
Isaiah Joe 16 3 2 0
Aaron Wiggins 13 3 3 0
Ajay Mitchell 13 2 3 1
Cason Wallace S 23 2 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 36 28 12 5
Bam Adebayo S 36 17 10 1
Duncan Robinson S 31 13 3 6
Dru Smith 30 13 0 4
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 30 9 6 0
Terry Rozier 23 7 4 2
Nikola Jovic 19 7 1 0
Haywood Highsmith S 24 3 5 0
Kevin Love 3 0 0 0
Jimmy Butler III S 7 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes 2-foot dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
14%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
10%
6 Jimmy Butler III MIA
10%
7 Duncan Robinson MIA
9%
8 Haywood Highsmith MIA
8%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
43%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 29.9 5.7 6.0
2 Tyler Herro MIA 22.4 5.0 4.8
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 21.7 6.8 5.2
4 Jalen Williams OKC 21.0 4.9 5.2
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 17.6 10.8 6.0
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 13.1 11.4 4.1
7 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.0 2.8 2.6
8 Terry Rozier MIA 9.9 3.6 2.0
9 Cason Wallace OKC 9.0 4.2 2.3
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 8.9 4.8 1.8
11 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 8.2 3.6 1.6
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 7.5 2.5 1.4
13 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.4 3.2 1.2
14 Alex Caruso OKC 7.3 3.0 1.8
15 Aaron Wiggins OKC 6.6 2.7 1.1
16 Kenrich Williams OKC 5.8 2.6 0.9
17 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.6 2.5 0.8
18 Dru Smith MIA 5.6 2.7 1.5
19 Ajay Mitchell OKC 5.1 1.7 1.3
20 Kevin Love MIA 4.4 3.7 1.1
21 Pelle Larsson MIA 4.0 1.9 0.9
22 Alec Burks MIA 3.5 1.6 1.0
23 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.7 1.1 0.4
24 Branden Carlson OKC 2.3 1.6 0.6
25 Ousmane Dieng OKC 1.8 1.7 0.6
26 Kel'el Ware MIA 1.7 1.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.