NBA games

MIL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
101–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL20312525101
CLE29403421124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home CLE
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 30 33 14 3
Khris Middleton 19 14 3 3
Brook Lopez S 24 10 6 1
Bobby Portis 20 9 3 2
Ryan Rollins 12 9 0 2
MarJon Beauchamp 12 8 4 1
Gary Trent Jr. 18 8 1 0
Taurean Prince S 25 5 3 2
Pat Connaughton 13 3 1 0
Delon Wright 17 2 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 27 27 4 6
Darius Garland S 25 16 4 5
Dean Wade S 21 15 5 2
Evan Mobley S 27 15 7 4
Ty Jerome 16 13 4 4
Jarrett Allen S 25 10 10 0
Max Strus 19 9 0 2
Caris LeVert 18 7 2 4
Georges Niang 17 5 2 1
Sam Merrill 19 5 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 23-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
18%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
14%
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
13%
5 Darius Garland CLE
12%
6 Taurean Prince MIL
11%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
8 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
8%
9 AJ Green MIL
0%
10 Khris Middleton MIL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
36%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.7 11.9 6.7
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE 22.1 5.0 5.5
3 Darius Garland CLE 20.2 3.2 5.8
4 Evan Mobley CLE 18.3 8.6 3.0
5 Caris LeVert CLE 13.0 3.1 4.0
6 Bobby Portis MIL 12.0 7.6 2.2
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 11.7 9.0 1.8
8 Brook Lopez MIL 9.8 5.0 1.4
9 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.5 2.6 1.3
10 AJ Green MIL 8.8 2.5 1.5
11 Georges Niang CLE 8.7 4.4 1.4
12 Ty Jerome CLE 8.6 2.0 2.7
13 Khris Middleton MIL 7.4 2.8 4.9
14 Sam Merrill CLE 6.6 2.1 1.6
15 Taurean Prince MIL 6.4 2.9 1.5
16 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.8 3.5 1.5
17 Pat Connaughton MIL 5.6 2.7 1.6
18 Dean Wade CLE 5.2 4.3 1.0
19 Delon Wright MIL 3.3 2.0 1.4
20 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.8 1.3 0.5
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.7 0.8 1.3
22 Ryan Rollins MIL 2.3 0.9 0.7
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.3 2.1 0.4
24 Liam Robbins MIL 1.9 1.2 0.4
25 Jaylon Tyson CLE 1.9 1.4 0.6
26 Stanley Umude MIL 1.4 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.