NBA games

LAL @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
113–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL37252427113
SAC28302220100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home SAC
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Austin Reaves S 35 25 6 5
Anthony Davis S 35 21 19 4
LeBron James S 34 19 6 7
D'Angelo Russell 23 16 6 1
Gabe Vincent 22 12 5 3
Rui Hachimura S 37 10 5 2
Max Christie S 28 8 4 0
Dalton Knecht 10 2 1 0
Cam Reddish 11 0 0 0
Christian Koloko 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 36 26 3 5
Domantas Sabonis S 38 18 12 9
Malik Monk S 37 17 3 4
Keegan Murray S 35 10 7 1
DeMar DeRozan S 35 10 5 4
Kevin Huerter 24 7 4 2
Keon Ellis 21 5 4 1
Alex Len 5 3 1 1
Isaac Jones 5 2 3 0
Orlando Robinson 1 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes 26-foot three pointer (Anthony Davis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
14%
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
4 LeBron James LAL
12%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
9%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
7 Austin Reaves LAL
7%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
9 Malik Monk SAC
7%
10 Doug McDermott SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
35%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 24.9 7.9 8.8
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 24.7 12.4 6.1
3 Anthony Davis LAL 24.1 11.8 4.3
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC 23.5 5.5 6.9
5 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.3 4.5 4.4
6 Malik Monk SAC 20.6 4.5 7.3
7 Austin Reaves LAL 16.6 3.2 4.8
8 D'Angelo Russell LAL 14.7 3.6 4.6
9 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.1 5.0 1.8
10 Keegan Murray SAC 11.9 6.7 1.1
11 Dalton Knecht LAL 9.1 4.9 1.2
12 Max Christie LAL 9.0 3.0 1.6
13 Kevin Huerter SAC 7.0 2.7 1.3
14 Keon Ellis SAC 6.3 2.9 1.5
15 Gabe Vincent LAL 5.6 1.8 1.2
16 Isaac Jones SAC 4.7 2.3 0.7
17 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 4.2 1.5 2.6
18 Jae Crowder SAC 4.0 2.4 0.8
19 Doug McDermott SAC 3.9 1.1 0.6
20 Cam Reddish LAL 3.7 1.4 0.9
21 Colby Jones SAC 2.5 1.7 0.6
22 Alex Len SAC 2.3 1.9 0.8
23 Orlando Robinson SAC 2.1 1.3 0.7
24 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 2.1 0.8 0.9
25 Christian Koloko LAL 1.8 2.2 0.3
26 Armel Traore LAL 1.6 2.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.