NBA games

DEN @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
124–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN35312137124
POR30363822126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home POR
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 37 34 6 8
Jamal Murray S 38 24 3 10
Russell Westbrook 33 19 4 7
Michael Porter Jr. S 32 16 6 3
Christian Braun S 25 13 4 1
Peyton Watson 17 8 2 1
Julian Strawther 10 6 0 1
Aaron Gordon S 31 2 6 3
DeAndre Jordan 11 2 7 0
Hunter Tyson 6 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anfernee Simons S 35 28 1 10
Shaedon Sharpe S 29 27 6 4
Deni Avdija 21 19 2 1
Deandre Ayton S 35 15 13 4
Toumani Camara S 36 14 8 1
Jerami Grant S 36 13 5 4
Scoot Henderson 27 7 4 4
Donovan Clingan 12 3 2 0
Robert Williams III 10 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Christian Braun · Layup (2 pts) · 10:29 Q1
"Christian Braun makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anfernee Simons POR
11%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
3 Christian Braun DEN
10%
4 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
8%
8 Nikola Jokic DEN
8%
9 Jerami Grant POR
7%
10 Donovan Clingan POR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
40%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
18%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.6 11.0 9.6
2 Jamal Murray DEN 21.9 4.3 6.7
3 Anfernee Simons POR 21.1 3.7 5.8
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 20.6 7.3 3.4
5 Deni Avdija POR 17.8 6.0 3.9
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR 17.4 4.2 3.2
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 17.2 5.3 3.3
8 Jerami Grant POR 15.6 4.1 2.9
9 Deandre Ayton POR 14.8 8.8 1.6
10 Christian Braun DEN 13.9 5.0 2.1
11 Russell Westbrook DEN 13.7 4.1 7.2
12 Scoot Henderson POR 11.2 2.8 5.4
13 Toumani Camara POR 10.3 4.8 1.8
14 Dalano Banton POR 9.7 2.8 3.2
15 Julian Strawther DEN 9.1 2.5 1.7
16 Peyton Watson DEN 8.7 3.4 1.4
17 Donovan Clingan POR 8.5 7.8 1.0
18 Robert Williams III POR 7.8 5.7 1.2
19 Kris Murray POR 4.2 1.6 0.5
20 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.5 1.6 0.7
21 Jabari Walker POR 3.5 3.2 0.8
22 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.8 3.1 1.0
23 Rayan Rupert POR 2.6 1.1 0.7
24 Duop Reath POR 2.5 0.8 0.4
25 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.4 0.8 1.4
26 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.6 0.7 0.4
27 Spencer Jones DEN 1.6 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.