NBA games

ATL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
126–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
ATL293721336126
SA3624303013133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home SA
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Andre Hunter 36 27 6 1
Trae Young S 37 23 0 16
Jalen Johnson S 39 22 9 3
Larry Nance Jr. 31 21 13 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 31 10 4 4
Clint Capela S 22 10 9 1
Zaccharie Risacher S 22 9 4 0
Dyson Daniels S 28 4 5 2
Vit Krejci 20 0 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 37 42 6 5
Devin Vassell S 38 23 4 2
Jeremy Sochan S 42 20 8 4
Chris Paul S 32 12 7 8
Keldon Johnson 29 11 5 4
Julian Champagnie 26 8 4 2
Stephon Castle 21 7 1 3
Harrison Barnes S 18 6 3 2
Charles Bassey 8 4 4 0
Tre Jones 14 0 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dyson Daniels · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Dyson Daniels makes layup (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
13%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
4 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
5 Clint Capela ATL
9%
6 Dyson Daniels ATL
8%
7 Julian Champagnie SA
8%
8 Larry Nance Jr. ATL
8%
9 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
10 Chris Paul SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
30%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 27.6 10.5 5.6
2 Trae Young ATL 23.6 4.0 13.2
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 22.9 10.3 6.2
4 De'Andre Hunter ATL 19.4 4.0 2.0
5 Stephon Castle SA 16.8 3.3 5.0
6 Devin Vassell SA 16.3 2.9 3.1
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 15.0 8.3 3.0
8 Julian Champagnie SA 14.6 4.8 1.5
9 Dyson Daniels ATL 13.2 5.5 3.7
10 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 12.7 3.6 2.2
11 Harrison Barnes SA 12.0 3.5 1.8
12 Keldon Johnson SA 11.9 4.3 1.8
13 Chris Paul SA 9.4 3.7 7.5
14 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 8.6 2.8 1.0
15 Clint Capela ATL 7.5 9.6 1.2
16 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 6.9 2.4 1.1
17 Charles Bassey SA 5.6 5.7 0.7
18 Tre Jones SA 4.8 2.1 3.1
19 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.9 0.9 0.9
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.8 2.5 0.6
21 Zach Collins SA 3.7 2.3 0.9
22 Blake Wesley SA 3.7 1.3 1.7
23 Malaki Branham SA 2.9 1.1 1.2
24 David Roddy ATL 2.8 1.1 0.8
25 Sidy Cissoko SA 2.7 1.0 0.6
26 Vit Krejci ATL 2.5 1.4 1.0
27 Dominick Barlow ATL 2.5 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.