NBA games

IND @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
120–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND32283723120
PHX29302428111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home PHX
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 40 25 18 3
Myles Turner S 34 19 6 1
Andrew Nembhard S 33 19 1 4
Bennedict Mathurin S 37 16 2 2
Tyrese Haliburton S 37 13 4 12
Obi Toppin 17 13 8 1
T.J. McConnell 16 11 2 5
Jarace Walker 5 2 0 1
Ben Sheppard 16 2 2 0
Thomas Bryant 5 0 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 38 37 10 6
Devin Booker S 25 17 2 6
Bradley Beal S 31 16 2 0
Jusuf Nurkic S 32 12 10 2
Royce O'Neale 26 9 6 4
Grayson Allen 29 8 10 0
Tyus Jones S 26 7 2 7
Monte Morris 13 3 0 2
Ryan Dunn 12 2 0 1
Oso Ighodaro 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Devin Booker makes 2-foot layup (Kevin Durant assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
12%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND
9%
4 Bradley Beal PHX
9%
5 Pascal Siakam IND
9%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
8%
7 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
8 Myles Turner IND
7%
9 Andrew Nembhard IND
7%
10 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
45%
Jumper
18%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 27.3 4.0 6.7
2 Kevin Durant PHX 25.7 6.4 4.5
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 23.4 3.9 8.8
4 Bradley Beal PHX 18.9 4.3 3.2
5 Pascal Siakam IND 18.8 6.4 3.4
6 Tyus Jones PHX 16.2 2.8 7.1
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.6 5.7 2.1
8 Royce O'Neale PHX 13.7 5.2 2.0
9 Myles Turner IND 13.5 6.8 2.1
10 T.J. McConnell IND 13.2 3.6 4.0
11 Grayson Allen PHX 11.6 3.3 2.7
12 Obi Toppin IND 11.4 5.3 2.1
13 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.0 2.8 4.4
14 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 9.2 8.7 1.5
15 Aaron Nesmith IND 8.0 3.2 1.2
16 Ben Sheppard IND 7.1 2.8 1.5
17 Jarace Walker IND 5.6 3.2 1.3
18 Ryan Dunn PHX 5.2 2.6 0.9
19 Monte Morris PHX 4.6 1.5 1.4
20 Oso Ighodaro PHX 3.9 3.2 1.0
21 Josh Okogie PHX 3.7 2.0 0.6
22 Mason Plumlee PHX 3.5 5.7 0.9
23 Thomas Bryant IND 3.4 2.8 0.4
24 Johnny Furphy IND 3.3 1.6 0.5
25 Bol Bol PHX 3.2 2.0 0.5
26 Damion Lee PHX 2.9 0.7 0.7
27 James Johnson IND 1.5 0.8 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.