NBA games

LAC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
118–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC24263929118
DAL3019281895

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DAL
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 38 29 7 5
James Harden S 36 24 4 7
Ivica Zubac S 33 21 15 5
Amir Coffey 25 16 3 0
Kevin Porter Jr. 20 12 4 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 20 8 1 1
Kris Dunn S 25 3 1 6
Nicolas Batum 23 3 4 3
Mo Bamba 15 2 7 2
Kai Jones 3 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson S 30 22 3 3
Spencer Dinwiddie S 37 19 3 7
P.J. Washington S 35 14 9 0
Dereck Lively II S 28 13 7 2
Quentin Grimes S 28 11 5 3
Naji Marshall 24 9 5 1
Jazian Gortman 11 5 1 2
Daniel Gafford 14 2 4 2
Kessler Edwards 3 0 1 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 11 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kris Dunn · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Kris Dunn makes 22-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell LAC
17%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
15%
3 James Harden LAC
13%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
13%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
12%
6 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
9%
7 Amir Coffey LAC
7%
8 Kris Dunn LAC
7%
9 Klay Thompson DAL
7%
10 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
20%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 25.9 4.6 8.5
2 Norman Powell LAC 21.9 3.4 3.4
3 P.J. Washington DAL 17.2 7.8 3.6
4 Naji Marshall DAL 16.1 3.5 2.3
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.4 11.2 2.4
6 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 12.7 2.9 4.7
7 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 12.5 4.4 3.8
8 Quentin Grimes DAL 12.1 3.9 2.1
9 Amir Coffey LAC 11.0 2.9 1.8
10 Klay Thompson DAL 11.0 3.5 1.7
11 Daniel Gafford DAL 10.7 6.8 1.3
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.0 8.1 2.2
13 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 9.1 2.9 1.2
14 Jordan Miller LAC 8.5 2.9 1.6
15 Bones Hyland LAC 7.8 1.7 1.5
16 Kris Dunn LAC 6.7 3.3 1.9
17 Mo Bamba LAC 5.2 3.9 0.9
18 Nicolas Batum LAC 5.1 2.6 1.5
19 Kai Jones LAC 3.0 2.1 0.7
20 Jazian Gortman DAL 2.8 0.7 0.5
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.6 2.0 0.5
22 Maxi Kleber DAL 2.3 2.4 0.6
23 Dwight Powell DAL 1.6 1.0 0.4
24 Kessler Edwards DAL 1.4 0.5 0.3
25 Markieff Morris DAL 1.2 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.