NBA games

NY @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
133–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY32413129133
MIN33182333107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home MIN
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 38 32 20 6
Mikal Bridges S 36 29 6 6
Miles McBride 29 16 5 8
Jalen Brunson S 30 14 3 7
Precious Achiuwa S 28 13 10 2
OG Anunoby S 30 9 3 4
Cameron Payne 18 9 1 6
Jericho Sims 19 6 6 0
Matt Ryan 4 4 1 0
Ariel Hukporti 2 1 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 30 24 5 3
Anthony Edwards S 34 17 5 7
Donte DiVincenzo 25 15 6 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 22 12 3 1
Josh Minott 11 11 2 1
Jaden McDaniels S 24 8 6 3
Luka Garza 11 5 2 1
Rob Dillingham 17 4 1 5
Naz Reid 16 3 2 2
Mike Conley S 18 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 13-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
13%
2 Anthony Edwards MIN
12%
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
12%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
5 OG Anunoby NY
11%
6 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
10%
8 Mike Conley MIN
10%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
10 Precious Achiuwa NY
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
39%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 24.7 3.7 7.7
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.7 6.0 4.5
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 22.7 15.7 4.9
4 Julius Randle MIN 19.1 6.8 3.8
5 Mikal Bridges NY 18.2 3.6 3.4
6 OG Anunoby NY 14.9 5.0 2.1
7 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 11.2 2.9 2.4
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.1 10.1 1.6
9 Mike Conley MIN 10.1 2.9 4.3
10 Naz Reid MIN 9.5 5.5 1.5
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.3 4.5 1.5
12 Miles McBride NY 9.1 2.9 2.5
13 Donte DiVincenzo MIN 6.8 2.8 3.2
14 Precious Achiuwa NY 6.3 6.2 1.2
15 Cameron Payne NY 6.3 2.0 2.0
16 Luka Garza MIN 5.0 1.8 0.4
17 Rob Dillingham MIN 3.8 0.9 1.2
18 Josh Minott MIN 2.3 1.1 0.4
19 Terrence Shannon Jr. MIN 2.1 0.9 0.7
20 PJ Dozier MIN 1.9 0.8 0.6
21 Tyler Kolek NY 1.6 0.7 0.5
22 Ariel Hukporti NY 1.5 1.3 0.4
23 Jericho Sims NY 1.4 2.5 0.5
24 Pacome Dadiet NY 1.2 1.0 0.4
25 Matt Ryan NY 1.0 0.4 0.3
26 Jacob Toppin NY 0.9 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.